Pakistan to Get 12 to 14 Million 3G Users During First Two Years

ProPakistani 3G

Recent polls on ProPakistani, offline surveys, market analysis, feedback from telecom companies, feedback from mobile phone users, early impression of telecom market relating to trial of 3G services and our personal opinion ascertains that 8 to 11 percent of mobile phone users in Pakistan are going to use 3G, during first 2 to 3 years.

After early years, or when 3G coverage will expand and adoption rate will increase, this figure may get multiplied and net addition in number of 3G subscribers may go substantially higher than the current rate.

This calculation for estimating number of 3G users with-in first two years also considered the number of smartphones in Pakistan, their relative prices and the adoption rate of technology in the country.

Affordability of 3G Services

A poll on ProPakistani revealed that 17 percent of individuals can afford 3G services even when data prices are more than Rs. 1,200 per month. A total of 7,128 respondents participated in the poll, while 17 percent of them said that they are willing to pay Rs. 1,200 per month or more for 3G services.

Currently announced 3G plans confirm that pricing of 3G services will fall with-in the affordability limits of these 17 percent mobile phone users.

In fact we are certain that there would be some data plans (with monthly charge of Rs. 1,000 or lesser) that may lure larger number of mobile phone users to transit to 3G services.

Another considerable fact is that majority of mobile phone users will use 3G for browsing, skyping, chit/chatting  and for usual internet needs on the go. Remember we aren’t talking about power downloading stuff such as torrents or HD movies.

This situation – if coupled with above two paragraphs — translates into an equation where 3G services are entirely affordable for larger number of audience who would want to use 3G for usual things while on the go with monthly budget of around Rs. 1,000 or more.

Not to forget, Pakistan is a very competitive market, where operators even cross their bread limits to attract the customers.

While we can hint that operators will continue to experiment with various pricing patterns during first 6-8 months, we assume that affordability won’t be an issue for Pakistani 3G user in the long run.

Quality of Service and Coverage of 3G

One has to agree that Quality of Service of cellular networks in Pakistan is in-line with global standards. In fact it won’t be wrong to say that Pakistani networks offer better quality of service than a lot of regional or even global operators. Yes, the room for betterment is always there but we don’t lack anywhere.

While 3G networks in Pakistan are just one month old, we can safely say that they aren’t below standard.

Coverage of 3G networks, however, may not get similar remarks but that’s understandable.

Operators take years to build network and if we keep the track record of Pakistani operators in mind then it can be safely  said that they are going to deploy 3G network way faster than the rollout obligations set by Pakistan Telecommunication Authority.

If we just look at previous one month – since the auction of 3G spectrum –then at least 9 cities have already received 3G services (at least partially) or 20 percent of population has been given 3G service already.

This proposition is going to get only better and richer with time.

It merits mentioning here that 13.15 percent individuals – out of 2,738 participants who took part in a poll – said that they were over satisfied with 3G services during the trial period of last one month or so.

Another 18.22 percent considered that quality of service was average, meaning that a total of 31.37 percent mobile phone users were satisfied with the 3G services during the first month of trial duration.

Another fact that should be kept in mind is the quality of service issues associated with DSL and EVO infrastructure of PTCL, an entity that holds over 90 percent of market share in Pakistan’s broadband market.

While we need not to comment on PTCL’s performance and QoS standards, it is likely that cellular companies are only going to beat them in quality standards by notable margin.

First Time Internet Users

While it may take some time, but the day is destined to come when 3G services will reach those areas where no prior internet connectivity channel has been established so far. Such rural areas and less operable areas for wired-internet are going to be the real fruit of 3G connectivity.

Adoption rate may not only be quick there but the productivity of wireless broadband — that is set to positively impact the economy – will be the real turnout of 3G services.

Conclusion

While the number of 8 to 11 percent of mobile phone users — who may transit to 3G network — seems low, but it will actually translate into five times (or even more) the broadband users of what we have today.

This adoption rate will grow further in coming years when 3G coverage will expand, especially when it will hit the rural areas of the country.

With this adoption rate – which seems inevitable – we will have 12 to 15 million broadband users with-in first two years of 3G networks in Pakistan. This forecast is in-line with Plum research that is widely quoted and mentioned in local media and telecom industry of Pakistan.

Tech and telecom reporter for over 15 years


    • I rally hated those caps on data, until and unless they are not gonna ease them, I am not gonna use 3G, though I was too excited to get it.

      • 30Gb is minimum i would expect with 1200-1500rs per month and 2mbps atleast . we have to wait atleast one year more

        • ha ha ha.. evo hi use kro.. yai 3G hy. sari dunya mai qatron k hisab sy milti hy.. very reasonable packages are being offered.. no one in the world has Unlimited data plan for 3G/4G unless he would be a technician in lab for testing. lol…

          • well in that case i guess u haven’t been outside pakistan for years now or never been to other countries. my friend in australia is using 1Gb/day @ 1 AU $

            • my cousin also there using 4G with 10 GB monthly limit along with voice and international SMS plan of 100 US $…
              i dont know which plan your friend is using.. ask him to share detail.. which can be verified from internet… :)

              • check what Telenor is giving in Bangladesh…

                grameenphone com / products-and-services / gp-3g / 3g-packages

              • check what Telenor is giving in Bangladesh…

                grameenphone com / products-and-services / gp-3g / 3g-packages

                • you mean 8GB in about 1,500/- PKR @ 1MB speed? Nice. And Ufone is offering just 3GB in same price, same speed.

                  • over all there is similarity in market.. but 8 GB package is good and i hope it would happen here after introduction of other operators in market…

            • The top-priced plans offer unlimited calls and texts, but no provider offers more than 3GB of data per month on a month-to-month plan other than Vodafone’s top-priced Red plan, which includes 5GB.

              this is about australian 4G monthly packages… whereas higher packages are for 24 month plans…

      • Average spending for easy use of internet on the go (3G/4G) in developed countries is 50$.

    • Madad Bhai konsa competition. Yes sab milay huay hotay hain. agar aik company 10 Paisay call connect charges barhati hay to within 10 days all 5 companies bhi theek utnay hi paisay barhaha deti hain.

  • if they offer free service and Mobile snatching cases does not go with current pace this might be achieved..!!

      • 3g4g tech is levish not need. The factor that effects the usage is the purchasing power. Pakistan is at No.143 by income per person and few countries are lower to us so few can afford monthly 1500 non sharing internet. Pakistan has limited technology literate people who be able to handle 3g4g so we have to work seriously towards education. Now keeping a smartphone that costs you around 20k is a life threat, In karachi Islamabad and Rawalpindi and is increasing day by day, Because snatching is common here, if this countinous people will stop carring expensive handsets and will start using 1000 rs handset so companies should provide insurance coverage for robbed or stolen smartphones.

        • True but zong will definitely introduce 5k 4g fone. They did it in pas like rs 1 handset. Infact i got that rs 1 handset after 30 minutes w8 in line

        • snatching and crime rate in New York is way more than many of our cities but what happens at all.. people do choose advancement.. let’s go few years back when a cell phone with Jazz sim was as impressive as Samsung 5S with Galaxy Gear now a days.. but what happend after that.. every thing went usual… and majority of population has a handset …
          similarly smartphone prices will come down or their low end variants will be introduced to capture markets like Pakistan.. and people will opt these technologies.. previously there was no 3G and no awareness for it .. people like us using WiFi are of different class but majority of people will go for these to get benifits…

          • I am certain New York crime is less than Karachi. Karachi is in the worldwide top ten cities of crime, New York is not anywhere near that.

            • i meant street crimes about which safaidsuch was talking … where as the list of most dangereous cities in the world include much more than that like killing etc.

              it was just to illustrate the affect of street crimes over adoption rate of technology like this…

            • Karachi is not in the top 50 most criminal cities according to this data

              http://www.businessinsider.com/most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world-2012-10?op=1

              And according to this data Karachi is not even in the top hundred dangerous cities

              http://www.neighborhoodscout.com/neighborhoods/crime-rates/top100dangerous/

              and according to this Wikipedia list which is about murder rate karachi is not in the top 50

              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate

              Now please stop following local media reports who exaggerate things to sell their news. yes situation is not Good in karachi it is bed but it is much much better than what our media show us. And before making a statement first study your statements, next time of course

            • This is another data from a different source Karachi or any Pakistani city is not there in the top 50 i wonder how did you claim that Karachi is top ten ?????? or were just firing in the air

              http://www.policymic.com/articles/75085/the-50-most-deadly-cities-in-the-world

              And here is forum and list of 50 cities people are talking about these cities Karachi is not even their i am amazed where did you find Karachi in top ten ? i can not find it, take a look plz.in this forum a guy is defending USA cities that they should not be that high up in the list. plz have a look and learn to study

              http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/general/303432-the-50-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world

              • articles titled: “10 Most Violent Cities in The World – WondersList”
                “Extreme World: Karachi one of the most violent cities in the world”

                etc.

                but when comparing new york to karachi, you can just look at official statistics. in new york: under 10,000 mobiles snatched in 2013. in sind, according to CPLC, over 10,000 (and we know about under-reporting here because police won’t register case). Similarly for violence: much more violence in karachi.

              • articles titled: “10 Most Violent Cities in The World – WondersList”
                “Extreme World: Karachi one of the most violent cities in the world”

                etc.

                but when comparing new york to karachi, you can just look at official statistics. in new york: under 10,000 mobiles snatched in 2013. in sind, according to CPLC, over 10,000 (and we know about under-reporting here because police won’t register case). Similarly for violence: much more violence in karachi.

                • you are again firing in the air back up your argument by providing facts or just say that you want Karachi to be in the top ten. where is the link to what you are claiming ? any other data ?
                  i have provided you data from 6 or 7 different sources including uk’s telegraph and usa’s guardian. if you want i can provide more… this wrong portrayal of Pakistan and its cites by its media and some locals is what angers me although i do not comment but when i see such thing i can not stop my self from commenting.so i will keep quite now

                • you are again firing in the air back up your argument by providing facts or just say that you want Karachi to be in the top ten. where is the link to what you are claiming ? any other data ?
                  i have provided you data from 6 or 7 different sources including uk’s telegraph and usa’s guardian. if you want i can provide more… this wrong portrayal of Pakistan and its cites by its media and some locals is what angers me although i do not comment but when i see such thing i can not stop my self from commenting.so i will keep quite now

                • their are some Indian sites whom does portray Pakistan and its cites violent their real purpose is just propaganda, but they can not back up their claims by providing legitimate sources, what i have provided are all legitimate sources monitored by international transparent authorities.

                  • google for ”

                    Karachi 2013: The deadliest year of all” article on tribune site. it not only has link to official Sindh police statistics, but also mobile snatching statistics for Karachi only.

                    Again keep in mind how useless the police are at registering FIR for things like mobile snatching. They don’t want to do it, so people have to rely on CPLC, and not all snatched mobiles are reported. Whereas in NY the police are not as useless.

                • you are comparing new york the city with karachi the city or comparing new york the state with sindh the state or province because 100000 mobile snathes in 2013 were in new york the city not new york the state, so do not compare a city with a state compare new york city with jush karachi not sindh

  • Agar coverage whole country mei ho gi to is se ziada be hi sakte hen, Q k ye Pakistan hai bhai yahan sab mumki hai

      • Jo Pakistan mei hota hy wo kahin aur km he hota hy 2003-4-4 mei car lease shru hui hr ksi ne le li, Phir cng ka rujhan hua her affordable ne cng station lga lia, phi sms packages ka waqt aya to hr koi 200-400 sms daily krne lga ab waqt hy 3g ka to jese b ho ye kamyab he rahe ga, chahe log installment pe mobile q na len, jese k haier ne apne cell pakistan mei launch kiye, haier to brand he sirf installment ka hai

        • ha ha ha.. I was also of same thinking… our people love to follow upper class.. roti ho na ho.. 3G ka package kr k neend aay gi logo ko… skype ki aisi tesi… Viber and whatspss to hain hi gharay ki machli etc…. lol

  • Except ufone none have even announced the packages yet, despite the fact that all of them claim that 3g is commercially launched.

  • The speed and data caps are too low. Is this like this in other countries too?

  • Jab Packages itne ache aur cheap hun ge to definitely har koi use kare ga

  • When will 3G coverage expand in Pakistan? In Lahore (Awan Town), i am not getting 3G service.

    • Hr kise kr pass set hai agar jo compnay jitna jaldi poore ko 3g mein cover kare gi wahi paise kamye gi dekh lena our ek bat agar khi waloo ke pass set hai tu aaj village waloo ke pass be set hai hr pakistani waloo haq hai 3g chalna agar uno ne 3g hamre shahr mein di tu mwin case karoo gi un ke upar dwkh lena aap log kaise ati hai 3g?

  • Boht Mushkil hai 3G Pure Mulk mein Chal jaye kyu k 70% Pakistani Anparh hai aur har kisi k Pas Android Set Nahi hota aur jo Network 3G Service Keh rahe hai Asal mein Woh 2G Speed Denge, is Mulk mein Awam ko Lotna Boht Aasan hai Kyu k Apne Haq k liye Yaha Koi Khada Nahi hota is liye toh Aaj Mulk ka yeh Hal hai.. Think About it..

  • As Karachi Citizen, I am really excited to use the 3G/4G services, but here we won’t be able to use it outside home and Offices, Thanks to the failed Sindh Government, Once you take out your cellphone in the streets, you are on the verge of facing snatching of your Phone, and 3G services comes handy of course when you’re at outdoors, no point of using it in homes/offices when there’s Wi-Fi services available, this is getting immensely unbearable for me, Despite we are provided absolute zero security of our property by Sindh Government, They have charged 19.5% FED, and we pay it regularly, I am really fed-up, now Ramadan is nearing rapidly, and mobile snatching increases by 10 times higher ratio, wth we can do with these 3G services? I am saying this because just today, My Galaxy S2 has been snatched, so you can expect anyone with this mishap, writing such comments, believe me, With the help of Karachi police and support from higher placed Government officials, Thieves are making Karachi dangerous than Mombasa (Kenya), have a wonderful 3G experience Karachities!

  • Aik baat koe Bhai samjha sakta hai mujy? companies ka maqsad paisa kamana hai, kya wo saste package de kar nai kamaa sakteen, QK is tarha numbers of customers increase hoo jain gae. Lekin ye loog Railways or GT road k food stops ki tarhaa itna mehnga bechte hain k bas aik hi customer se sari kamai karni hai ye nai sochte k mehnge ki waja se kitne hi aise hai jo nai buy karte.

  • upto world Standard ? really ? when you talk about service they have been offering in city like Lahore you have to go out door to make a call .. I will admit i have not Tested 3G much but two or tree days i use . i found it unstable speed even in full coverage area.. Hopefully that will improve once they all will start commercial service but my reading is they are not at pare with world standards even with 2G call services..

  • telenor will commercialy launch 3g on 1st june 2014. just got a msg from telenor that free 3g will expire on 31st may 2014

  • زونگ کی طرف سے 22 ہزار روپے میں سمارٹ فون اور پورے سال کے لیئے مفت انٹڑنیٹ کی پیشکش خاصی کشش رکھتی ہے۔ تقریبا دو ہزار روپے ماہانہ میں انٹرنیٹ ملے اور فون بھی تو اور کیا چاہیئے؟ امید ہے کہ دوسری کمپنیاں بھی اسی قسم کی پیشکش کریں گی۔


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