January 2017 has already started in Pakistan and the winter season is still rather mild in most areas. In fact, the weather seems more or less the same as in early October of the last year.
Many are wondering whether this is just an anomaly or will this become a permanent feature for Pakistan’s weather from now on. Farmers, rural areas, urban areas, towns, cities – you name it. Everyone is concerned since it seems like climate change has been affecting weather patterns on a global scale.
Today we will be looking at these questions:
The answer to the first question is yes, climate change has indeed affected Pakistan. And here’s how:
There’s been virtually no rain in most of Pakistan ever since the winter season started. December-January period usually comprises of regular rainfall with the temperatures dropping below 0 in most areas of Punjab, KPK, Balochistan and the northern areas including Azad Kashmir.
What’s more astonishing is that snowfall has also been scarce in the northern areas of Pakistan.
Temperatures in Islamabad haven’t dropped below 5 degrees Celsius. Similarly, the difference between maximum and minimum temperatures in Pakistan has been higher than usual. For example, in Lahore, the temperature difference has been about 13 degrees Celsius this winter compared to 7 degrees Celsius last year.
The day times are unusually warmer this year. Similar weather patterns have been reported in Karachi which hasn’t witnessed rains in months and temperatures have been so high that it still feels like late summer in the country’s biggest city, save for the occasional cold winter night or two here and there.
Why is this happening? We take a look at 3 reasons why:
Pakistan’s meteorological department has also confirmed that sudden weather changes are the cause of this climate phenomenon in Pakistan.
Anti-cyclonic circulations over Khairpur and Nawabshah region are spreading warm and dry winds, increasing the temperature. This has resulted in higher than usual temperatures in the surrounding regions as well.
The secondary reason, is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affect. This ENSO, occurs every 3 to 10 years and causes severely warmer weather in the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean warms up. This leads to worldwide weather changes and severely affects the South Asian climate, causing droughts.
The strong effects of the ENSO have previously had similar affects in Pakistan causing long spells of no rain and warmer climates. El-Nino years are considered to be the reason for higher temperatures in the region during winter.
With no rain and little moisture in the air, it’s hard for people to wear warm clothing during the current winter season.
Another usual occurrence for Pakistan are the Western Disturbances. Winds and rains result due to these western weather patterns. Coming from the Mediterranean Sea, these disturbances bring moderate rainfall to the southern areas of Pakistan and heavy rainfall/snowfall in the northern part of the country.
This winter, these Western Disturbances are less intense as moisture in the air gets drained before it reaches Pakistan. This has resulted in less rain and no chilly wind flow, ultimately preventing the temperature from falling to usual levels in both, the mountainous and plain areas of the country.
This is the warmest year on earth since 1880, with almost every single month breaking records set in the past years. It might rain or snowfall a little in the northern areas of Pakistan, however these scarce rains are not expected to bring the temperatures down by a lot. Additionally, normal rainfall or temperatures are not forecast for the near future.
With the warmer temperatures in mind, an early spring season could be expected in 2017. This could very well mean a rather short-lived winter season that never was. With the effects of climate change becoming ever more severe, one has to wonder if the winter season is every going to be the same.
