The IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC) on Monday projected a 15 percent water shortage during the current sowing season in Punjab and Sindh.
Reviewing the system operation for the Kharif season of 2023, the IAC noted that the actual rim station inflows, totaling 95.22 MAF until September 30, surpassed the forecasted volume of 92.88 MAF by 3 percent.
However, these inflows were 6 percent less than the 10-year average of 101.55 MAF.
Notably, provincial canal withdrawals fell short by 15 percent, with Punjab and Sindh receiving 14 percent fewer supplies than anticipated, while Kyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan received fully indented supplies.
System losses were reported at 14.15 MAF, while downstream Kotri releases stood at 13.79 MAF. Despite these challenges, due to improved inflows and effective regulation, the storage volume available for transfer to Rabi 2023-24 was 11.579 MAF, marking a 15 percent increase over the 10-year average and a 19 percent increase compared to the previous year.
The IAC also approved an anticipated Water Availability of 21.92 MAF for Rabi 2023-24, reflecting an 8 percent increase from the previous year and a 1 percent decrease from the 10-year average. The forecast and system operation utilized the collaborative Water Apportionment Accord (WAA)-Tool, involving MoWR, IRSA, PIDs, and WAPDA, and supported by the Australian government.
The anticipated total availability, including the Eastern Rivers component, was broken down, indicating a likely availability at the canal heads of 31.66 MAF, an 8 percent increase from the previous year’s actual availability and a 10-year average of 29.42 MAF. The Basin-wise shortage for Rabi 2023-24 was set at 15 percent.
The IAC approved 8 percent losses for the Indus Zone and zero percent for the JC Zone, with a possible mid-season review. PID Punjab and Member IRSA Punjab proposed a 5 percent loss estimate for the Indus Zone. Chashma Barrage Closure from December 26, 2023, to January 14, 2024, was also greenlit by the IAC, aligning with Punjab and Sindh Canal Closures.
Chashma Reservoir will operate between 638.15 ft to 640.00 ft, with outflows restricted to 15,000 cfs to 30,000 cfs. WAPDA’s request for O&M works at the Jari outlet of Mangla Reservoir will be considered in the mid-term review post-provincial canal closures.
WAPDA also updated IAC on Tunnel 5 HPP, pledging to complete ongoing works within the approved 33-month closure. They committed to meeting IRSA’s irrigation demands at Tarbela for Rabi 2023-24 and assured the operationalization of Tunnel 4 Low-Level Outlet (LLO) by March 2024. A comprehensive report on T4 LLO will be submitted within a week after discussions with T5 HPP consultants and contractors.
The meeting was chaired by the Chairman of IRSA and Member IRSA, with IRSA Members, Engineering Advisor (MoWR), Member (Water) WAPDA, WAPDA’s technical advisors, representatives from Tarbela, Mangla, and Chashma Reservoirs, T5 HPP, provincial irrigation departments (PIDs), and Director (Opr)/Secretary IRSA, along with IRSA’s senior technical personnel in attendance.