Cotton Industry Calls Govt’s Crop Estimates Unrealistic

Pakistan’s cotton industry has questioned the Federal Committee on Agriculture’s (FCA) production estimates for the 2026-27 cotton season, arguing that the government’s projected provincial yields do not reflect ground realities and could undermine the country’s credibility in international markets.

The FCA has forecast Pakistan’s cotton production at 9.643 million bales for the upcoming season, including 5 million bales from Punjab, 4.042 million bales from Sindh, and about 604,250 bales from Balochistan.

However, Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ehsan ul Haq criticized the estimates, saying the FCA has once again issued unrealistic production projections. He questioned how the committee projected Sindh’s average yield at 2.72 bales per acre, compared with 1.60 bales per acre in Punjab and just 1 bale per acre in Balochistan.

According to Haq, Balochistan has historically recorded Pakistan’s highest cotton yields because of its favorable climate, lower pollution levels, and limited sugarcane cultivation. He added that cotton produced in the province also commands a premium of Rs. 500 to Rs. 700 per maund over cotton grown in Punjab and Sindh.

He also pointed to the FCA’s forecasting record, noting that the committee had projected 10.18 million bales for the 2025-26 season, while actual national production stood at only 5.524 million bales. Punjab produced 2.718 million bales against the official estimate of 5.553 million bales, while Sindh produced 2.807 million bales compared with the projected 4.042 million bales.

Haq urged the FCA to base its forecasts on field assessments rather than what he described as “drawing room estimates,” warning that inaccurate production forecasts could affect procurement planning, imports, exports, marketing decisions, and Pakistan’s credibility in global cotton markets.