A government-appointed inquiry committee has held WAPDA, the project’s contractor, and the engineering consultant responsible for the collapse of the cofferdam at the 1,530 MW Tarbela 5 Extension Hydropower Project.
It concluded that unauthorized design changes made after the contract was awarded were among the primary causes of the failure.
According to the inquiry report, the collapse delayed the project by at least two years and increased its cost from Rs. 82 billion to Rs. 317 billion, a jump of more than 285 percent. The Planning Commission estimates the project’s levelized electricity generation cost could rise to Rs. 27 to Rs. 28 per unit, making it Pakistan’s costliest renewable energy project and raising concerns about its long-term viability.
The project, backed by $700 million in loans from the World Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), is now expected to be completed by June 2028, instead of its original 2026 target.
The three-member inquiry committee, led by Federal Flood Commission Chairman and Chief Engineering Adviser Ather Hameed, found that the contractor proposed an unauthorized redesign of the cofferdam, the consultant approved it without ensuring technical compliance, and WAPDA endorsed the revised design without questioning its contractual or technical validity. The report concluded that all three parties failed to meet their contractual responsibilities, resulting in the construction of a vulnerable cofferdam.
The committee rejected claims that flooding caused the collapse, finding that river flows remained within historical levels and should have been accommodated under the original design. Instead, it blamed inadequate protection layers, poor filter arrangements, and the replacement of the original design with a weaker rock filled structure.
Tarbela 5 Collapse Could Make It Pakistan’s Costliest Renewable Energy Project
The inquiry also criticized project oversight, noting that after WAPDA requested a cofferdam performance review in July 2023, the consultant passed the task to the contractor instead of conducting an independent assessment. The contractor submitted its report more than a year later, in October 2024. Investigators also found alleged irregular payments for temporary works that weakened the government’s ability to seek compensation after the collapse.
The report further highlighted shortcomings by the project’s consultant, MM Pakistan BIDR China, whose contract was later terminated by WAPDA over staffing issues.
It also noted that the consultant withdrew its staff from the project site in May 2025 without providing the required 30 day notice. The inquiry described the incident as a major governance failure in the execution and oversight of a multibillion rupee infrastructure project financed through international loans.
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