Ctrl + Alt+ Pakistan: Here’s Why Starlink Will Not be Allowed in Pakistan

In this Ctrl + Alt+ Pakistan, let me give an update on Starlink working in Pakistan. This is my analysis. I have no specific inside information.

Starlink will NOT be allowed to operate in Pakistan, yet it is my belief that it is already working in Pakistan. Allow me to elucidate. The reason Starlink will not be allowed to work in Pakistan is because of Starlink’s purported adventurism. To explain that further, let’s talk tech.

So Starlink is now in Generation 3 of technology. Generation 1 needed ground stations in the geography of where the satellite was. This was a grid of domes that ensured high speed and low latency within the Satellite’s coverage area. This meant you really could not use Starlink reliably in countries that did not have these ground stations. Generation 3 does not need these ground stations. Theoretically, a Starlink terminal in Pakistan could connect to a satellite overhead, which then relays the signal via laser links to other satellites until it reaches one that’s in range of a ground station, potentially in Kenya, Europe, or anywhere else. This is called a satellite mesh.

Now Starlink geofences terminals. So if you have a terminal that was for use in, say, Belgium and it shows up in Pakistan, the GPS would make it unusable. BUT Starlink can turn this off and has done that in Sudan, Russia, and Iran.

So now with Gen 3 technology, Starlink can work, and indeed does work in Pakistan. There is no way that with a robust black market in terminals, some terminals are already operational in Pakistan. What is interesting is why this black market exists. The reason is Starlink itself. There is a 60-day period for re-checking the GPS, which is a convenient loophole. Black market terminals are actively traded globally because of this loophole. So basically, you get a Starlink in Malaysia and send it via air to a Middle Eastern post and then via boat to Balochistan, and you can use it for 60 days without Starlink taking any action, and this is official. Also, if they get instructions from any government, they can just turn that geofencing off, allowing any area to be flooded by terminals bought in other geographies.

Starlink use does, however, leave RF emissions, which you can track. China caught a ship recently that was using Starlink in its waters, using this technique. To track a dish within one kilometer is fairly easy. The Starlink dish antenna is broadcasting several watts of RF even when the internet is not being used. A big antenna on a truck gets you close. A smaller handheld antenna then takes over, and you can locate it. How China applied this tech to catch a small dish in the middle of an ocean from hundreds of kilometers, I do not know. Maybe they just used satellites to locate it visually, although you can easily disguise dishes using fiberglass domes called radomes.

It is widely known that Starlink terminals have been in Iran for years. During the current protests, Iranians deployed mobile jamming trucks to kill Starlink connections because, well, the satellites move. However, even at peak blocking, it is estimated that Iran blocked like 80% traffic. Some traffic was getting through. Meanwhile, reportedly, Starlink has an entire team dedicated to getting around these sorts of jams. Russia and China are at the forefront of the jamming tech. Starlink is at the forefront of getting around these jams. It is now a proper arms race.

Russia not only leads in jamming, but it also leads in using Starlink as an asymmetrical actor. This example I am about to give is the reason I feel Starlink will not be allowed to operate in Pakistan. In Starlink’s Ukraine coverage areas, Russia deployed its own Starlink terminals acquired from the black market, on the front line in Ukraine, and used them in a drone kill chain. For example, Starlink terminals have reportedly been installed on Russia’s Shahed-136 suicide UAVs to provide air-to-surface, surface-to-air communications and guide them to the kill zone. They can also use the same terminal to coordinate a drone swarm attack. Pakistan’s western border is under constant kinetic threat from proxy terrorist actors. With Starlink’s history of being involved and/or being manipulated in crisis zones, such adventurism must 100% be top of mind with PTA. I do not see how they can give approval for Starlink as of now. No one wants a drone swarm attack on a major urban center because of black-market Starlink satellite terminals.

I can tell you that Jazz and PTCL were testing Starlink 6-9 months ago, while Starlink reportedly really likes the Saifullahs, who own Transworld, and were willing to do a 5 satellite deal with them for coverage of the North, which makes the most business sense. So we are very close to going live with Starlink, should we choose to. There is a willingness on business actors on both sides.

But now, with Starlink’s convenient loophole resulting in a thriving black market for Starlink terminals that are constantly found in crisis areas, I do not see it being given a go ahead, and we will probably move forward with Starlink’s Gen 1 or 2 equivalent Chinese tech. We do need satellite communications, especially to promote tourism in the North, which should be a multibillion-dollar foreign currency influx a year quickly if we play our cards right. Let’s see which way the router crumbles.