Situation Report: Weekly New Cases Drop 30%, Deaths Decline 50%

Pakistan saw a major decline in weekly new cases as a total of 25,424 new cases were reported during past week, down 30% from 36,610 new cases that were reported during same period a week ago.

This decline was seen as weekly number of tests also dropped to 160K, down some 27% from 204K tests that were conducted during same period the earlier week.

Number of ICU admissions today dropped to 2,437 when compared to 3,219 ICU patients last Monday.

Not to mention, these ICU admissions were once at peak with 3,515 patients either on ventilator or oxygen on June 16th.

While number of new cases seems off, as reporting is not consistent and also the fact that number of tests have dropped, ICU admissions show that the disease is now somewhat contained as fewer number of serious patients are being treated at hospitals.

We are saying this because, number of new cases could drop due to various reasons, including: they aren’t testing enough people, suspected patients are not getting themselves tested and are getting treated at home or maybe because there’s lag in reporting but number of ICU admissions show the real situation. As those who aren’t getting themselves tested do reach ICUs if they get severe, or even back-log in reporting doesn’t impact the ICU admissions.

This essentially depicts that we are on the decline now and curve is indeed on the down-ward slope. But this has to remain the same for next several weeks to fully contain the disease.

At this point in time, experts think that down-ward trend is natural and there’s no out-side intervention that has played any role. The so-called smart lock-downs, for instance, will start showing impact from July 1st.

Also to note that there are several leakages, for instance those coming from international flights are now not tested, but only checked for symptoms. Only those passengers are tested who show symptoms.

We are hoping that positive cases coming from abroad are either very few or even best non-existent to retain the down-ward trend of the graph.

While the graph is going down, it has potential to rebound and start picking again; any time. In such situations, our only hope could be a vaccine — which is said to hit market around late September or October. That’s when the disease will be fully controlled and we can get back to normalcy.

More in below tables and graphs:

Weekly Report

 

Overall Report

Cases Deaths Death Rate Deaths Per Million Total Tests Tests Per 1,000
AJK 1,049 28 2.67% 6.93 15,599 3.86
Balochistan 10,376 116 1.12% 9.40 48,194 3.91
GB 1,442 24 1.66% 12.63 13,292 7.00
Islamabad 12,643 127 1.00% 63.50 120,096 60.05
KP 25,778 922 3.58% 30.21 144,081 4.72
Punjab 74,778 1,681 2.25% 15.28 485,968 4.42
Sindh 80,446 1,269 1.58% 26.50 435,293 9.09
Total 206,512 4,167 2.02% 19.97 1,262,523 6.05

Yesterday’s Report

Confirmed Cases In 24 Hours Tests in 24 Hours Deaths Last 24 Hours
AJK 1,049 22 270 28 00
Balochistan 10,376 115 459 116 02
GB 1,442 19 95 24 00
Islamabad 12,643 248 2,007 127 05
KP 25,778 398 2,645 922 08
Punjab 74,778 576 8,389 1,681 08
Sindh 80,446 2,179 9,144 1,269 26
Total 206,512 3,557 23,009 4,167 49



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