The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected GDP growth rate for Pakistan at 3.2 percent for fiscal year 2025 against 2.4 percent in fiscal year 2024.
The Fund in its latest report “World Economic Outlook (WEO): Policy Pivot, Rising Threats”, released on Tuesday noted that Pakistan’s GDP is projected to be 3.2 percent in fiscal year 2025 against 2.4 percent in 2024.
World Bank has estimated Pakistan GDP growth at 2.8 percent in fiscal year 2025 (lowest in the region) against 2.5 percent in 2024. Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained GDP growth projection for Pakistan at 2.8 percent.
The Fund has projected inflation rate at 9.5 percent for 2025 against 23.4 percent in 2024. However, the report has projected consumer prices for the end of period of 2025 at 10.6 percent against 12.6 percent in 2024.
The current account balance is projected at negative 0.9 percent for 2025 compared to negative 0.2 percent for 2024.
The Fund has projected a decrease in unemployment in Pakistan to 7.5 percent in 2025 compared to 8 percent in 2024.
The report noted that global growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming. At 3.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, the growth projection is virtually unchanged from those in both the July 2024 World Economic Outlook Update and the April 2024 World Economic Outlook. However, notable revisions have taken place beneath the surface, with upgrades to the forecast for the United States offsetting downgrades to those for other advanced economies—in particular, the largest European countries.
Likewise, in emerging market and developing economies, disruptions to production and shipping of commodities—especially oil—conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events have led to downward revisions to the outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia and that for sub-Saharan Africa.
These have been compensated for by upgrades to the forecast for emerging Asia, where surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence, has bolstered growth. The latest forecast for global growth five years from now––at 3.1 percent—remains mediocre compared with the pre-pandemic average. Persistent structural headwinds—such as population aging and weak productivity—are holding back potential growth in many economies, it added.