Severe Drought Predicted Due to Lack of Rainfall

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has raised concerns about a potential drought in most parts of the country due to significantly reduced rainfall.

In an advisory issued on Tuesday, the PMD’s National Drought Monitoring Centre (NDMC) highlighted that the plains had received insufficient rainfall, exacerbating drought conditions. This alert follows the initial Drought Advisory-I released on December 9, 2024.

Between September 1, 2024, and January 15, 2025, rainfall across Pakistan was 40% below average. The most severe deficits were recorded in Sindh (52% below normal), Balochistan (45% below normal), and Punjab (42% below normal).

Drought Conditions Across Regions

The low rainfall has resulted in mild drought conditions in various areas, particularly rain-fed regions:

• Punjab: Potohar region (Attock, Chakwal, Rawalpindi/Islamabad), Bhakkar, Layyah, Multan, Rajanpur, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Sargodha, Khushab, Mianwali, and D.G. Khan.
• Sindh: Ghotki, Jacobabad, Larkana, Shaheed Benazirabad, Dadu, Padidan, Sukkur, Khairpur, Tharparkar, Hyderabad, Thatta, Badin, and Karachi.
• Balochistan: Ormara, Kharan, Turbat, Kech, Panjgur, Awaran, Lasbella, Nokkundi, Dalbandin, and nearby areas.

The advisory warned that drought conditions could worsen, as no significant rainfall is expected in rain-fed areas of Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan.

Outlook and Concerns

The PMD anticipates that the second half of the season will remain as dry as the first. With above-normal temperatures predicted, mild drought conditions could escalate into moderate drought, particularly in rain-fed regions. Flash droughts—periods of rapid drought intensification—are also possible in the coming months.

Authorities were urged to implement preemptive measures in drought-prone areas to mitigate the impact.

Seasonal Forecast

The PMD noted that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is expected to persist until March 2025. This climatic pattern, involving temperature changes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, significantly influences global rainfall.

Additionally, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is transitioning from a negative to a neutral phase, which could also impact weather patterns.

• Expected Rainfall:
  • Normal to above-normal rainfall: Central and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, most parts of Punjab, and adjoining areas of Azad Kashmir, due to western weather systems.
  • Near-normal rainfall: Upper KP, Hazara, Gilgit-Baltistan, Sindh, and eastern Balochistan.
  • Below-normal rainfall: Western Balochistan.

Water and Environmental Impact

The advisory stated that northern regions might benefit from normal to above-normal rainfall early in the season, potentially replenishing water reservoirs and ensuring adequate supply. However, southern Balochistan’s below-normal rainfall could strain water resources for irrigation and domestic use.

Warmer temperatures during the latter half of the season may lead to the early onset of the pollen season in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Additionally, above-normal temperatures could cause heat stress in vulnerable populations, especially in southern regions, by March.

The PMD emphasized the need for close monitoring of water reservoirs to ensure sufficient irrigation and domestic water supplies throughout the season.