Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2025 is expected to clock in at 2.0-2.5 percent year-on year (YoY) and flat on a month-on-month (MoM) basis, according a report by brokerage house Topline Securities.
This will take 8MFY25 average to 6.07 percent compared to 27.96 percent in 8MFY24.
During February 2025, Food Inflation is expected to decline by 0.4 percent MoM mainly on the back of 55 percent decrease in prices of tomatoes, 27 percent decline in onion prices and 21 percent decline in potatoes prices. While, prices of fresh fruits, and sugar are expected to increase by 9-15 percent, the report said.
Housing, water, electricity and gas segment is expected to witness approximately 0.2 percent MoM decline due to 8 percent decline in LPG prices and 0.5 percent decline in electricity prices amidst higher negative fuel cost adjustment (FCA), it added.
Transport segment is expected to witness increase of 1.2 percent MoM on the back of increase in petrol and diesel prices by 2-4 percent.
For FY25, the brokerage house has maintained it average inflation forecast of 6.0-7.0 percent.
However, the report said that any major deviation in commodity prices from current levels (i.e. oil $75/barrel) may result in change in inflation estimates.