The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast a normal but noticeably drier winter for the country, revising earlier expectations of unusually cold conditions. The department’s latest seasonal outlook attributes the upcoming pattern to weak La Niña influences, which will shape temperature and rainfall trends nationwide.
Chief Meteorologist Dr. Afzaal said La Niña remains strong in several regions globally but will have a relatively mild impact in Pakistan. He noted that the phenomenon typically suppresses winter rainfall rather than intensifying cold, and current indicators suggest fewer early-season weather systems than usual.
According to the outlook, maximum temperatures are expected to stay near or slightly above seasonal averages, while minimum temperatures may bring the usual two to three cold waves common in most winters.
Between November and January, Pakistan is likely to receive below-normal rainfall, especially in northern Punjab, Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Southern Punjab, Sindh, and parts of southern Balochistan may see near-normal precipitation, but the overall trend points to a drier start to the season.
PMD expects rainfall activity to improve after January, when Western Disturbances begin entering the country more frequently. These systems may bring rain and snowfall to northern areas, followed by colder nights due to northwesterly winds. Dr. Afzaal emphasized that such patterns fall within normal winter behavior.