PMD Predicts Heatwave Across Pakistan in Coming Weeks

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has warned that weather conditions are shaping up for heatwave development in the coming weeks, particularly over the plain areas of southern Punjab and Sindh, as the March–April–May (MAM) season trends warmer than usual.

PMD reports mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most parts of the country. The strongest warming signal is projected for the north, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where departures from normal are expected to be more pronounced.

On the rainfall side, PMD projects near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall for the season. The most noticeable positive anomaly is expected over central to western parts, especially southern KP, along with adjoining areas of central Punjab and northern Balochistan, which PMD links to relatively stronger spring activity from westerly disturbances.

Many other regions, including Sindh, central-to-southern Balochistan, northern KP, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan,  are expected to see rainfall close to typical seasonal averages.

PMD also flagged a set of practical on-ground impacts for the next few weeks:

• Dust storms, strong winds, and hailstorms may occur due to developing temperature gradients during spring.
• Early pollen peak is possible in major cities such as Islamabad/Rawalpindi and Lahore, and rainfall after mid-March could extend the pollen season, affecting allergy sufferers.
• Warmer conditions may speed up pest and disease activity in Rabi crops in the plains, increasing the need for timely monitoring.

Separately, PMD cautioned that above-normal temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan and upper KP could accelerate snowmelt, increasing the risk of glacier-related hazards such as GLOFs (glacial lake outburst floods) later in the season.

PMD noted the seasonal outlook provides broad trend guidance and should be used alongside short-term forecasts for planning and day-to-day decisions.