Israeli officials are reportedly pursuing a strategy in southern Lebanon similar to the approach used in the southern Rafah area of the Gaza Strip, according to regional analysts.
The plan, described by officials as the “Rafah model,” could involve depopulating large areas near the border and establishing a buffer zone under Israeli control.
Possible Months-Long Ground Offensive
Israeli authorities estimate that a potential ground assault in southern Lebanon could take months rather than weeks.
The government is also considering a request from the military to mobilize up to 400,000 reserve soldiers, signaling the scale of the possible operation.
Officials believe the strategy would require clearing civilian populations from parts of southern Lebanon, an area estimated to cover about 10 percent of the country’s territory, before occupying the zone.
Strategy Linked to Gaza Operations
The plan draws comparisons to Israel’s military approach in the Gaza Strip during the ongoing war.
Israeli officials have pointed to the creation of security zones inside Gaza, including areas near Rafah, where large sections of territory have been cleared during military operations.
Israel’s defense leadership has reportedly instructed forces to demolish structures in Lebanese border villages considered close to Israeli territory.
Ongoing Regional Tensions
Rocket attacks from Lebanon and missile launches from Iran continue to fuel tensions across the region.
Analysts say the continuing conflicts are affecting daily life in Israel, including education and economic activity.
The government has also moved to extend the country’s state of emergency until mid-April as the security situation remains volatile.
Escalating Conflict Concerns
The prospect of a large-scale operation in southern Lebanon raises concerns about further regional escalation, particularly as Israel remains engaged in multiple fronts across the Middle East.
Observers warn that prolonged military operations could deepen instability in the region and delay any return to normal economic and social activity.
