Global geopolitical tensions, domestic security risks, commodity price volatility, natural disasters, and cybersecurity threats have emerged as the five most serious risks facing Pakistan’s financial system, according to the State Bank of Pakistan’s latest Systemic Risk Survey released in the Financial Stability Review 2025.
The survey, conducted in January 2026 as part of SBP’s 17th biannual Systemic Risk Survey, captures the views of senior banking executives, non-bank financial institutions, and financial journalists regarding present and near-term risks over the next six months.
Among all risk categories, global geopolitical developments were identified as the dominant concern, driving overall “general risk” perceptions. Respondents expect geopolitical risks to remain elevated in the near term, while concerns related to commodity prices, natural disasters, and cybersecurity threats are likely to ease somewhat over the coming months.
Domestic terrorism also remained a notable concern expected to persist in the short-term outlook.
Despite identifying multiple external and internal threats, survey participants expressed strong confidence in the stability of Pakistan’s banking system. Respondents indicated trust in financial regulators’ ability to manage emerging risks and maintain overall financial stability.
The survey evaluates risks across five major areas, namely global, macroeconomic, financial markets, institutional, and general risk categories, to assess sentiment about the resilience of Pakistan’s financial system.
Compared with the previous survey wave, overall risk perception improved across most categories. However, macroeconomic risk perceptions deteriorated, primarily due to rising global geopolitical uncertainty.
Although external shocks remain a key vulnerability, market participants view Pakistan’s financial system as stable and capable of withstanding near-term pressures.
