Climate change could have a major impact on the FIFA World Cup 2026, with a new analysis warning that heat conditions may affect player performance in almost every match of the tournament.
According to Climate Central, 97 of the 104 scheduled matches across the United States, Mexico, and Canada are now more likely to be played in temperatures above 28°C. Previous scientific research has linked this temperature level with reduced football performance.
The tournament will begin on June 11 and will feature a record 48 teams across 16 host cities. Researchers say it could become one of the clearest examples of how rising global temperatures are starting to affect elite sport.
The analysis used historical weather data and climate attribution methods to compare today’s climate with a hypothetical world without human-caused climate change. It found that nearly half of all matches have at least a 50 percent chance of facing heat levels that can affect performance.
In 26 matches, climate change has increased the likelihood of such heat by at least 10 percentage points. Across the full tournament schedule, the average increase in risk is nearly eight percentage points.
Researchers said temperatures above 28°C can reduce sprint frequency, lower the total distance covered by players, slow recovery, and change the tempo of matches. This could influence tactics, reduce intensity, affect entertainment value, and raise concerns over player welfare.
Some of the highest risks are expected in Mexico and parts of the United States. The group-stage match between Uruguay and Spain in Guadalajara has the largest climate-related increase in risk, according to the report.
That match has a 69.7 percent chance of temperatures exceeding 28°C. Without climate change, the probability would have been 32.4 percent, meaning global warming has increased the risk by 37.3 percentage points.
Guadalajara is expected to be one of the most affected host cities. Three matches scheduled there on June 11, June 18, and June 23 each have an 88.2 percent chance of performance-impairing heat, with climate change increasing the odds by more than 20 percentage points.
Miami is also among the high-risk venues. Matches scheduled there on June 15 and June 21 each have an 88 percent chance of such conditions, almost 20 percentage points higher than expected in a climate unaffected by human emissions.
The study also found that the World Cup final, scheduled for July 19 in New Jersey, has a 46.6 percent likelihood of performance-impairing heat. Climate change has increased that risk by 16.6 percentage points.
Experts involved in the report warned that hotter conditions could change how football is played at the highest level.
Mike Tipton, from the Extreme Environments Laboratory at the University of Portsmouth, said temperatures above 28°C can affect tactics, tempo, and overall match quality. He noted that players often reduce intensity and sprinting efforts in hotter conditions, which could lead to fewer scoring chances.
He also warned that rising temperatures increase the risk of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
Morten Thorsby, who is expected to represent Norway at the tournament, said the findings show that climate change is affecting both player safety and the quality of the game. He said reduced sprinting, slower recovery, and lower overall intensity are harmful for players as well as spectators.
Former Jamaican Premier League player Alex Jacobs said extreme heat could become a decisive factor at the world’s biggest football tournament. Climate Central meteorologist Shel Winkley also warned that heatwaves and changing weather patterns are increasingly reshaping sport.
The report comes as football authorities face growing pressure to respond to the impact of climate change.
Climate Central said tournament organizers have already scheduled more evening kickoffs in hotter host cities. Mandatory hydration breaks will also be used during all 104 matches.
Matches may be delayed or suspended if the wet-bulb globe temperature reaches 32°C. This measure combines heat and humidity to assess heat stress.
However, concerns remain because most World Cup venues are open-air stadiums. Only the stadiums in Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston are fully climate-controlled, leaving players, officials, and millions of fans exposed to summer heat.