The federal government has decided to import one million tonnes of wheat following extensive deliberations, in what marks the first official acknowledgment of a supply-demand gap in the country’s staple grain market.
Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research Rana Tanveer Hussain confirmed the decision on Thursday, stating that the move came in response to demands from provincial governments. “This will help stabilize wheat and flour prices across the country,” he said.
The decision comes against a backdrop of steadily rising wheat and flour prices that have shown no signs of abating. Official data for the first week of July 2026 places the average wheat price at Rs. 4,611 per 40kg (Rs. 115 per kg), up from Rs. 4,516 a week earlier. Province-wise, wheat is currently priced at Rs. 4,423 in Punjab, Rs. 4,625 in Sindh, Rs. 5,100 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Rs. 4,800 in Balochistan.
Flour prices have followed a similar trajectory, with the national average reaching Rs1,288 per 10kg (Rs129 per kg), compared to Rs1,268 previously. Punjab recorded the lowest flour price at Rs1,224 per 10kg, while Balochistan saw the highest at Rs1,378.
The shortfall was flagged as early as April 29, 2026, with a projected deficit of 1.2 million tonnes for the 2026-27 marketing year based on initial crop estimates during the early harvesting phase.
However, estimates of the actual shortfall vary significantly. The Progressive Flour Millers Group (PFMG) has projected a wheat shortfall of 2.5 million tonnes for the ongoing season. According to Majid Abdullah, President PFMG, Punjab’s production stands at approximately 19.5 million tonnes, with a marketable surplus of 30 per cent, or 5.85 million tonnes.
Against this, the total market size is estimated at 4.3 million tonnes, including 1.5 million tonnes for flour mills, 0.5 million tonnes held by aggregators, 0.5 million tonnes for seed companies, 0.3 million tonnes for KP, and 1.5 million tonnes for prior three months’ consumption.
This leaves 1.55 million tonnes in the open market, with a requirement of 4 million tonnes over the next eight months, a gap of 2.5 million tonnes in Punjab alone, according to the PFMG.
A separate official assessment paints a similarly concerning picture for the period from May 1, 2026, to April 30, 2027. With a population of 268.13 million, Pakistan’s total wheat demand has been estimated at 34.33 million tonnes, comprising 30.83 million tonnes for human consumption, 1.5 million tonnes for feed and seed, and 2.0 million tonnes for strategic reserves.
Total wheat availability, however, is estimated at 31.78 million tonnes, including 29.6 million tonnes from domestic production and a carryover stock of 2.0 million tonnes from the previous season. This leaves a deficit of approximately 2.55 million tonnes. The per capita consumption used for this projection stands at 115kg per annum.
The 2026-27 wheat season has thus begun with a pronounced supply deficit, and stakeholders are urging prompt and sustained policy intervention to prevent further price escalation in the months ahead.
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