Will Pakistan Lose Its No. 1 T20I Spot? [Ranking Scenarios]

2020 is the World Cup year with World T20 scheduled in Australia later this. The focus for international cricket teams this year will be T20Is and as Pakistan is hanging by a thread at the top of ICC rankings. We felt necessary to analyze the ranking scenarios.

Pakistan cannot afford to lose any of the matches against Bangladesh, because if they do, the Green Shirts will be displaced from the top of the table.

The current standings are as follows:

Pos Team Weighted Matches Points Rating
1  Pakistan 31 8,366 270
2  Australia 26 6,986 269
3  England 21 5,568 265
4  South Africa 18 4,720 262
5  India 41 10,645 260
6  New Zealand 24 6,056 252
7  Afghanistan 23 5,422 236
8  Sri Lanka 29 6,830 236
9  Bangladesh 23 5,212 227
10  West Indies 30 6,757 225

Upcoming Series

India is touring New Zealand for a 5-match series, whereas South Africa, England and Australia also have T20I series in January-February. Here are the details:

  • India tour to New Zealand – 5 T20Is
  • Bangladesh tour to Pakistan – 3 T20Is
  • England tour to South Africa – 3 T20Is
  • Australia tour to South Africa – 3 T20Is

Team Rankings Scenarios

Pakistan Wins 3-0 Against Bangladesh

If Pakistan manages to whitewash the Bengal Tigers, they will retain their position at the top of ICC rankings with 271 points. Bangladesh will lose 2 points to end up on 225 points.

Bangladesh Wins 3-0 Against Pakistan

If Bangladesh clean sweeps Pakistan, like Sri Lanka did late last year, they will move to 7th spot, ahead of Sri Lanka and Afghanistan, with 237 points. Pakistan will stand at 262 points and if India wins 5-0, they will move past Babar Azam’s team to 3rd place.

Pakistan Wins 2-1 Against Bangladesh

Even if Pakistan claims the series win with a margin of 2-1, Pakistan will lose its top position, ending up on 2nd with 268 points. Australia will be the top team in that case.

Bangladesh, on the other hand, will gain 2 points, however, their 9th rank will remain the same.

Bangladesh Wins 2-1 Against Pakistan

In this scenario, Pakistan will lose 5 points and end up at par with England on 265 points. The Men in Green will still be ranked at the second place. Meanwhile, Bangladesh will jump to 233 points, however, without any change in its position.

India to Win Against New Zealand

Even if India whitewashes New Zealand 5-0, Pakistan will stay at the top of the table if it defeats Bangladesh 3-0. What it means is that this series will not have any impact on Pakistan’s number 1 rank.

Let’s analyze a few scenarios:

  • India 5-0 New Zealand: Virat Kohli-led side will improve its position by one slot as they will move to number 4 with 264 points, up from 260 they currently have. They can move to 3rd in the same scenario if Pakistan loses 3-0 to Bangladesh.
  • India 4-1 New Zealand: If India wins by a margin of 4-1, they will get 2 points to come at par with South Africa with 262 points.
  • India 3-2 New Zealand: India will have to at least win by 3-2 to keep their 5th position intact. They will finish on the same 260 points with this scoreline.

New Zealand to Win Against India

  • New Zealand 5-0 India: With this series result, New Zealand can displace India from the 5th position with 262 points. India will lose 6 crucial points if New Zealand wins by 5-0.
  • New Zealand 4-1 India: In the case of 4-1, New Zealand will still be at 5th with 259 points while India will be at 6th with 256 points.
  • New Zealand 3-2 India: There will be no change in the rankings for both teams despite the fact that New Zealand will get to 255 whereas India will slide to 258 points.

It will turn out to be a very long post if I continue analyzing the series results for South Africa vs England and South Africa vs Australia. However, let’s give you an idea of how things would turn out for these teams and Pakistan in case of different result scenarios.

England to Win Against South Africa

If Pakistan wins 3-0 and England win by the same margin, Babar Azam-led side will still be at the top despite the fact that both the teams will have 271 points.

If they win 2-1 against South Africa after Pakistan’s 3-0 whitewash, England will be at 3rd with 267 points. In case, Pakistan loses the series against Bangladesh, England has a chance to clinch the top position by winning their series 3-0.

If England loses one of their matches and Pakistan does the same, Australia will automatically move to the top of the table.

South Africa to Win Against England

South Africa also has a chance to top the rankings if they beat England by 3-0 and Pakistan loses one of their matches against Bangladesh. In that case, South Africa will end up with 269 points, the same as Australia, whereas Pakistan will have 268 points.

If Pakistan completes a 3-0 clean sweep, South Africa cannot take the top spot.

Australia to Win Against South Africa

It’s a no-brainer that if Australia wins the series against the Proteas away from home, they will easily rule the rankings even if Pakistan smashes Bangladesh 3-0.

Their total points would be either 273 or 274 depending on the results of earlier series.

South Africa to Win Against Australia

If the Proteas win 3-0 against England and then go on to do the same against Australia, they will rule the ICC rankings with 275 points with Pakistan in the second position (271 points) if they win their series 3-0.

All in all, there are so many combinations and permutations, however, an overview of the impact of different series on Pakistan’s rankings has been summed up above.

Which team do you think will be the top-ranked side before the ICC World T20? Let us know in the comments section.

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