For the first time since the outbreak emerged in Pakistan during late February 2020, weekly new cases have dropped as compared to the earlier week.
This essentially means that every week, the number of new cases grew since Feb 26th, 2020 — but last week, for the first time, the weekly new cases were lesser than the previous week.
This week, a total of 36,610 new cases were registered, down 10% when compared to last week when 40,807 new cases were recorded from across the country.
More in the below graph:
This downward trend is hinting that we might be undergoing a peak — and if the trend continues for another week (if cases remain same or lower than this week) then it will be certain that we have flattened the curve and then a decline in cases will continue for the remainder of the time.
It is important to note that disease isn’t over, it’s only that we have somehow managed to control the spread and that all SOPs issued by the government must be followed to keep the trend this way.
It must also be noted that recently imposed so-called smart lock-downs (across various cities) aren’t behind this negative trend of new cases. As any lock-down of activity show a positive impact only after 15 days of imposition.
Thus this flattening of the curve seems to be natural in nature and may only get better since we locked-down over 1,400 communities across 20 densely populated cities of Pakistan.
Also to note, if you are thinking Pakistan’s testing capacity is limited — well that’s true, but its actually at par with various regional nations.
Check below the graph of the testing chart of various countries when compared with Pakistan:
Weekly deaths, however, continued to increase this week. A total of 861 patients died of coronavirus related complications this week, up 23% when compared with last week when 662 patients had lost their lives.
23% increase in new deaths, however, is lower than 35% increase in a week over week deaths that we saw last week. This indicates that the rate of increase in weekly deaths is positive, however, the rate has slowed down marginally.
It must be mentioned here that deaths occur after 15 days of the emergence of new cases, hence this increase in deaths will continue for another two weeks until they will come down, given that our new cases will continue to remain flat or decline in the coming days.
Here is some more data on testing per thousand, deaths per million and other indicators for Pakistan:
|Total Cases||Deaths||Death Rate||Deaths Per Million||Total Tests||Tests Per 1,000|
More on yesterday’s situation, check below table and graphs:
|Confirmed Cases||In 24 Hours||Tests in 24 Hours||Deaths||Last 24 Hours|