The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward the GDP growth projection for Pakistan to 3.9 percent for 2021 from its earlier projection of 1.5 percent.
However, it maintained the GDP growth for 2022 at 4 percent.
The IMF’s latest report ‘World Economic Outlook, Fault Lines Widen in the Global Recovery’ that was released on Tuesday stated that projections are revised up for the Middle East and Central Asia due to robust activity in some countries (such as Morocco and Pakistan), partially offset by downgrades of some others.
The IMF’s report ‘World Economic Outlook’ that was released in April 2021 had projected GDP growth for Pakistan at 1.5 percent and 4 percent for 2022.
The report noted that economic prospects have diverged further across countries since the April 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. Vaccine access has emerged as the principal fault line along which the global recovery splits into two blocs: those that can look forward to further normalization of activity later this year (almost all advanced economies), and those that will still face resurgent infections and rising COVID-19 death tolls.
The recovery, however, is not assured even in countries where infections are currently very low so long as the virus circulates elsewhere.
The global economy is projected to grow 6.0 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022. The 2021 global forecast is unchanged from the April 2021 WEO, but with offsetting revisions. Prospects for emerging markets and developing economies have been marked down for 2021, especially for Emerging Asia.
By contrast, the forecast for advanced economies is revised up. These revisions reflect pandemic developments and changes in policy support. The 0.5 percentage-point upgrade for 2022 is derived largely from the forecast upgrade for advanced economies, particularly the United States, reflecting the anticipated legislation of additional fiscal support in the second half of 2021 and improved health metrics more broadly across the group, it added.