National Accounts Committee to Determine Growth Targets Tomorrow

The National Accounts Committee (NAC) is scheduled to meet tomorrow to accord provisional approval for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the outgoing fiscal year 2021-22.

An official in the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) told ProPakistani that the meeting will be held under the chairmanship of the Secretary Planning Commission in Islamabad. The committee will approve the provisional figures for the GDP growth, including the agricultural, industrial outputs, and services sectors.

The GDP growth is likely to remain around 4 percent against the target of 4.8 percent for the current fiscal year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have been indicating that Pakistan’s economy is likely to grow by around 5 percent in the current fiscal year.

The Imran Khan-led PTI government had set a target of 4.8 percent GDP growth, including 3.5 percent agricultural growth, 6 percent industrial growth, and 4.7 percent growth rates for the service sector for the current fiscal year. The projected agriculture growth was mainly contingent upon the revival of cotton production, the consistent availability of water, certified seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and agriculture credit facilities. Several projects and programs are intended to improve the food and agriculture sector.

Experts believe that the agricultural sector will perform well despite a shortage of fertilizer and water during the season.

The industrial sector is also expected to grow rapidly due to Large Scale Manufacturing, the construction sector, and mining and quarrying. Moreover, a collateral-free credit guarantee scheme for small and mid-size enterprises (SME) will underpin the overall manufacturing sector growth prospects. The overall manufacturing sector is projected to post moderate growth at around 6.2 percent in 2021-22.

The Services sector is also expected to rebound and register higher growth with growing economic activity amid improved vaccination rollout, and is expected to grow by 4.7 percent in 2021-22. This growth target is supported by 4.6 percent growth in the wholesale and retail trade, 4.7 percent in transport, storage, and communication, 5.2 percent in finance and insurance, 4.0 percent in housing, 4.5 percent in general government services, and five percent in other private services.

These figures will be presented in the upcoming meeting of the Annual Plan Coordination Committee (APCC) under the chairmanship of the Deputy Planning Commission and attended by the provincial Ministers for Planning. The APCC will also propose the target of GDP growth, the current account, and the development budget of the federal and provincial governments for next year besides the approval of the current fiscal year.