Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index-based inflation increased to a historic high of 31.6 percent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in February 2023 as compared to an increase of 27.6 percent in the previous month and 12.2 percent in February 2022.
At 31.6 percent, this is the highest inflation reading recorded in Pakistan since April 1965 when the same metric was first recorded.
According to Arif Habib Limited (AHL), this takes 8MFY23 average inflation to 26.19 percent (8MFY22: 10.52 percent).
Independent analyst A H H Soomro told ProPakistani,
Inflationary trends are peaking, reflecting the pain masses have gone through. The PKR has depreciated 50% in last 12 months increasing prices of everything, plus, delayed adjustments on gas and electricity tariff are going to weigh in as well as IMF’s suggested adjustments are undertaken. Pakistan should thank god that global oil prices are on a downtown. Otherwise, we would have been squeezed even further. Expect imminent 200 to 250 bps hike.
CPI inflation (Urban), increased to 28.8% on a year-on-year basis in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 24.4% in the previous month and 11.5% in Feb 2022. On a month-on-month basis, it increased to 4.5% in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 2.4% in the previous month and an increase of 0.9% in Feb 2022.
CPI inflation (Rural), increased to 35.6% on a year-on-year basis in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 32.3% in the previous month and 13.3% in Feb 2022. On a month-on-month basis, it increased to 4.0% in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 3.6% in the previous month and an increase of 1.5% in Feb 2022.
SPI inflation on YoY increased to 33.6% in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 30.5% a month earlier and 18.7% in Feb 2022. On MoM basis, it increased by 3.7% in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 1.3% a month earlier and an increase of 1.3% in Feb 2022.
WPI inflation on YoY basis increased to 36.4% in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 28.5% a month earlier and an increase of 23.6% in Feb 2022. On MoM basis, it increased by 8.2% in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 1.8% a month earlier and an increase of 1.9% in the corresponding month of last year i.e. Feb 2022.
Core inflation (NFNE)
Measured by non-food non-energy Urban increased to 17.1% on (YoY) basis in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 15.4% in the previous month and 7.8% in Feb 2022. On an MoM basis, it increased by 2.2% in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 1.4% in the previous month, and an increase of 0.8% in the corresponding month of last year i.e. Feb 2022.
Measured by non-food non-energy Rural increased to 21.5% on (YoY) basis in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 19.4% in the previous month and 9.4% in Feb 2022. On MoM basis, it increased by 2.6% in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 1.5% in the previous month, and an increase of 0.9% in the corresponding month of last year i.e. Feb 2022.
Core inflation (Trimmed)
Measured by 20% weighted trimmed mean Urban increased to 25.1% on (YoY) basis in Feb 2023 as compared to 20.9% in the previous month and 9.8% in Feb 2022. On an MoM basis, it increased by 2.9% in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 1.5% in the previous month and an increase of 0.8% in the corresponding month of last year i.e. Feb 2022.
Measured by 20% weighted trimmed mean Rural increased to 31.6% on (YoY) basis in Feb 2023 as compared to 27.8% in the previous month and 11.3% in Feb 2022. On an MoM basis, it increased to 3.9% in Feb 2023 as compared to an increase of 2.1% in the previous month and an increase of 1.2% in the corresponding month of last year i.e. Feb 2022.
