The Ministry of Finance has projected inflation to hover around 24.5-25.5 percent in February 2024, with expectations of a further easing to 23.5-24.5 percent in March 2024.
In its Monthly Update & Outlook for January, the ministry said that in February 2024, the administered prices of petrol and diesel increased in response to a notable surge in crude oil prices, highlighting the direct influence of global market dynamics on domestic fuel costs.
It said that despite the upward adjustment in transportation expenses and gas prices, the inflation outlook for the upcoming month may have a downward trend, primarily due to a decrease in the prices of perishable items on the back of better crops and ease in supplies.
Additionally, the high base effect would further contribute to keep the inflationary pressure on the lower side. Meanwhile, the Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 118 points in January 2024 down by 1 percent from December level as decreases in the price indices for cereals and meat more than offset an increase in the sugar price index, while those for dairy and vegetable oils only registered slight adjustments, it added.