Pakistan is expected to experience one of its coldest winters in recent history as the La Niña weather pattern takes hold, bringing lower-than-normal temperatures across the country.
According to a report by the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG) in collaboration with UN-OCHA, the cold wave could worsen conditions for communities still recovering from the devastating monsoon floods.
La Niña is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which alternates between warm (El Niño), cool (La Niña), and neutral phases every few years, influencing weather patterns worldwide.
La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean drop below average, disrupting global weather patterns and often causing temperature extremes and abnormal rainfall. In Pakistan, experts warn that its effects could lead to severe cold, reduced rainfall in northern areas, and heightened risks for agriculture, health, and livelihoods.
Meteorologists say this marks the fifth La Niña event in six years. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that La Niña conditions reappeared in September 2025 and are expected to continue through February 2026, though the phase is expected to be mild and short-lived.
The ISCG report predicts below-normal rainfall in northern Pakistan — including KP, northern Punjab, Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK), and GB — while Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab are likely to see near-normal precipitation. These shifts are influenced by weak negative phases of both the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
Experts warn that the combination of cold weather and flood aftermath could: