Growing demand for AI infrastructure is putting pressure on the PC industry, with higher memory costs threatening to reduce shipments and push prices higher, according to a new report from International Data Corporation (IDC).
In its most pessimistic scenario, the IDC projects global PC shipments could decline by as much as 8.9% in 2026 due to rising memory prices. The strain has already contributed to the exit of at least one consumer-facing RAM brand, and the firm warns the broader industry could face deeper challenges.
The IDC said major memory manufacturers have redirected production away from conventional DRAM and NAND used in PCs, smartphones, and other consumer electronics. Instead, companies are prioritizing memory designed for AI data centers, including high-bandwidth memory and high-capacity DDR5.
This shift has reduced the supply of PC grade RAM and driven prices higher. As a result, PC makers have begun passing costs on to consumers. Modular PC maker Framework has already raised prices on some laptops and components and has warned that further increases are likely in the coming months.
Under the IDC’s worst-case outlook, RAM prices could rise by 6% to 8% in 2026.
The timing of the memory crunch is notable, as so-called AI PCs were expected to help revive the PC market after its post pandemic slowdown. These systems include neural processing units designed to run AI models locally, but they also require more memory, leaving them more exposed to rising RAM costs.
The impact is not limited to PCs. The IDC said the average selling price of smartphones could also rise by 6% to 8% in its most pessimistic scenario, while global smartphone shipments could fall by as much as 5.2%.
According to the IDC, companies such as Apple and Samsung may be better positioned to manage higher memory prices due to strong cash reserves and long term supply agreements. These firms could maintain more stable pricing for a year or two.
For smaller manufacturers, however, the IDC said the near term outlook points to higher costs and fewer opportunities to experiment with new products as memory prices remain elevated.
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