State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmed on Monday stated that the current account deficit is projected at 0 to 1 percent of GDP in FY26, which is expected to support a further build-up in foreign exchange reserves to above $18 billion by June 2026.
Unveiling the Monetary Policy Report for February 2026, Jameel said SBP expects external pressures to remain contained. He said Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions have continued to improve since August 2025, supported by a prudent monetary policy stance and fiscal consolidation.
The governor said inflation is projected to remain within the SBP’s target range of 5 to 7 percent during both FY26 and FY27, barring some near-term volatility. He attributed the outlook to a sufficiently positive real policy rate and continued macroeconomic stability.
Ahmed said economic growth has gained momentum, with real GDP growth now projected in the range of 3.75 to 4.75 percent in FY26, and expected to accelerate further in FY27. He added that the recovery is likely to be broad-based, with contributions from agriculture, industry, and services.
However, the governor cautioned that the outlook remains subject to several risks. He pointed to volatility in international commodity prices due to geopolitical developments, persistent global tariff-related uncertainty, and other headwinds that could weigh on Pakistan’s export earnings. He also highlighted climate-related shocks as a key risk to food price stability and the broader macroeconomic outlook.
The governor said the continuation of prudent monetary and fiscal policies over the past two years has helped strengthen foreign exchange reserves and fiscal buffers, placing Pakistan’s economy in a better position to withstand global and domestic shocks compared to previous years.
Jameel stressed that maintaining the current policy course is critical to sustaining recent macroeconomic gains, while productivity-enhancing structural reforms will be essential over the medium term to achieve higher and more sustainable growth.
All loans. Nothing to brag about