Central Bank Governor Jameel Ahmed expects the economy to grow up to 4.75 percent in the current fiscal year despite the recent downgrade by the International Monetary Fund, reported Reuters.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised its FY26 growth forecast to 3.75–4.75 percent, up 0.5 percentage points from its previous range, despite the drop in exports and a huge trade deficit in the first half of the year.
Jameel said all high-frequency indicators and 6 percent growth in large-scale manufacturing point to strengthening domestic demand, while agricultural activity has remained strong despite last year’s floods.
The governor explained that financial conditions have eased following a cumulative 1,150‑basis-point cut in the policy rate since June 2024. This has supported growth while maintaining price and economic stability.
Exports fell due to low global prices and border disruptions, but strong remittances. The governor opined that dollar inflows around the Eid festival are expected to keep the current account deficit within 0–1 percent of GDP and support forex reserves.
