Pakistan is likely to meet most of its key IMF performance targets ahead of the upcoming review, although tax collection remains below target, according to a report by Topline Securities.
The report noted that nearly all Quantitative Performance Criteria under the IMF program are expected to be met for September and December 2025, reducing the risk of any major compliance issues during the review.
Key indicators, including net international reserves, net domestic assets of the State Bank of Pakistan, foreign currency swaps, and the primary budget surplu,s are all projected to remain within agreed limits. 
However, tax collection remains a concern as per the report. The Federal Board of Revenue has missed its target by Rs. 336 billion, highlighting ongoing challenges in revenue mobilization. The report suggests that some of this gap could be partially offset through super tax collection, although total revenues may still fall short of annual goals.
An IMF mission is expected to arrive in the last week of February 2026 to conduct the third review under the Extended Fund Facility and the second review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The outcome of these reviews will determine future disbursements to Pakistan.
Overall, the report indicates that while Pakistan’s macroeconomic indicators are stabilizing and program targets are largely on track, revenue shortfalls remain a key challenge for policymakers ahead of the IMF assessment.
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