The global memory shortage linked to rising AI demand could force a large number of consumer electronics companies out of business by the end of 2026, according to comments attributed to Pua Khein-Seng, CEO of Phison.
In a summary posted on X by user 駿HaYaO, Pua reportedly said that many system vendors may go bankrupt or exit product lines due to limited memory supply. The original interview was conducted in Chinese and is available on YouTube without English subtitles, so the remarks cannot be independently verified verbatim.
《獨家專訪 #群聯 #Phison 執行長潘健成》
核心結論
1. 記憶體供需嚴重失衡將持續到2030年
AI為剛需，DRAM與NAND Flash極度缺貨。原廠要求預付3年貨款（電子業史無前例），賣方市場空前強勢。原廠內部預估缺到2030年，甚至10年不見盡頭。2. 消費電子將大量死亡… https://t.co/FvVnb8tT2I
— 駿HaYaO (@QQ_Timmy) February 14, 2026
Production Cuts Expected
According to the translated summary, Pua warned that consumer electronics will experience widespread failures from late this year through 2026. He reportedly said mobile phone production could decline by 200 to 250 million units, while PC and television output would also fall significantly.
The shortage has already driven sharp increases in memory prices, complicating the production of various computing-related devices.
NVIDIA’s Rubin GPUs to Blame
Pua also reportedly addressed the impact of Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin AI GPUs. If tens of millions of Vera Rubin units ship, each requiring more than 20TB of SSD storage, that would consume roughly 20 percent of last year’s global NAND production capacity, excluding additional data storage demand, according to the summary.
Long-Term Shortage Looms
The summary further claims that memory manufacturers are now requesting three years of prepayment, a practice described as unprecedented in the electronics sector. Manufacturers are also said to estimate that the shortage could last until 2030 or potentially another decade.
Major memory producers, including Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix, Kioxia, and Yangtze Memory, have announced investments in new capacity. However, bringing new facilities online typically requires at least two years from announcement to production, and equipment remains in high demand.
China’s additional output is expected to account for only 3 to 5 percent of global capacity in its early stages, which would not close a projected 10 to 20 percent supply gap. Domestic demand within China is also described as strong, limiting the likelihood of surplus exports.
Sustainability Debate
The X user suggested that extended product lifespans and increased repairs could be a potential upside of constrained supply. However, overall electronics production continues to grow, with output shifting toward energy-intensive AI servers and GPUs rather than consumer hardware.
Funny. Didn’t you claim that it was going to wipe out so many jobs
But now all is doing is consuming hardware needed for other things.
So what was the point of ai