Pakistan may seek inclusion in Saudi Arabia’s list of preferred crude buyers supplied through the Red Sea if tensions in the Gulf disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for more than 10 to 12 days.
The contingency planning comes as escalating hostilities in the region raise uncertainty over traffic through the narrow waterway, one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, reported a national daily.
About 20 to 21 million barrels a day of crude oil, condensate and refined fuels, roughly a fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption, transited the strait in 2023-24.
Around 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade, mainly from Qatar and the UAE, also passes through the route to Asian buyers. Analysts have warned oil could surge to between $100 and $150 a barrel if the passage is blocked for an extended period.
Pakistan is heavily reliant on Gulf energy flows. It imports LNG from Qatar, diesel from Kuwait and most of its crude oil from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, with shipments typically moving through Hormuz.
Two crude tankers bound for Pakistan, including one operated by Pakistan National Shipping Corp., are currently stranded in the strait, while another cargo at the loading stage is unlikely to sail under prevailing conditions, officials said. LPG imports by sea and land have also slowed sharply, heightening the risk of domestic price spikes.
Two LNG cargoes that crossed Hormuz before the latest escalation are expected to arrive within days, offering temporary relief.
A second high-level meeting in as many days was convened on Sunday to assess petroleum stocks, chaired by Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik and Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb.
Pakistan holds roughly 30 days of petrol and high-speed diesel inventories. Beyond next week, however, continued hostilities could severely constrain supplies of crude, LNG and imported diesel, potentially forcing authorities to purchase refined fuels from the spot market at elevated premiums.
Pakistan already imports a significant share of petrol from Singapore, and diesel purchases from the same market could rise if needed, albeit with higher freight and insurance costs. Officials expressed hope the crisis will ease within a week but are preparing for prolonged disruption.
If required, Pakistan is expected to formally approach Saudi Arabia for crude shipments routed via the kingdom’s East-West pipeline, which carries oil from eastern fields to Red Sea export terminals, bypassing Hormuz. From there, Saudi Arabia supplies major Asian buyers including China, Japan, South Korea and India.
Securing similar access could allow Pakistan to sustain refinery operations even if Gulf shipping lanes remain compromised. LNG imports, however, would remain vulnerable as Saudi Arabia is not a major exporter of the fuel.
Pakistan produces about 70,000 barrels a day of crude domestically but imports roughly 300,000 barrels a day to meet refinery demand. The country imports around 70% of its petrol consumption, while meeting about 70% of diesel needs through local production. A prolonged closure of Hormuz would likely lift fuel and LPG prices, exacerbate gas shortages, widen the current account deficit and add to inflationary and foreign-exchange pressures.
Private-sector refiners may offer limited flexibility. Cnergyico Pk Ltd., which operates a 156,000-barrel-a-day refinery, has previously imported US West Texas Intermediate crude in large cargoes that avoided Hormuz-linked supply chains. Authorities could explore similar arrangements to cushion potential shortages.
For now, existing stocks provide a buffer. But if the Strait of Hormuz remains inaccessible beyond two weeks, Pakistan could face one of its most significant energy disruptions in recent years.