Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are close to finalizing a revised tax collection target of Rs. 13.45 trillion for the current fiscal year.
The two sides are holding virtual discussions to reach a staff-level agreement under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility.
Sources told ProPakistani that FBR is unlikely to achieve the earlier tax-to-GDP target of 11 percent for FY26. The revised projection expects the tax-to-GDP ratio to reach 10.6 percent by June 2026. At 10.6 percent of GDP, overall FBR collections are estimated at Rs. 13.45 trillion.
The original target was Rs. 14.13 trillion, which was later revised to Rs. 13.979 trillion after IMF agreed. This marks a second downward adjustment to Rs. 13.45 trillion for the current fiscal year.
Pakistan’s real GDP growth is projected to meet the original 4 percent target for FY26, aided by strong performance in Q1, though the IMF had earlier revised FY26 growth to 3.2 percent following last year’s floods. CPI inflation is now expected at 7-7.5 percent.
On the external front, the State Bank of Pakistan continues to purchase dollars to strengthen foreign exchange reserves. Despite ongoing Middle East conflicts, the current account deficit is expected to remain within 0-1 percent of GDP in FY26.