Meteorologists in the United States have warned that El Niño conditions are likely to develop this year, with the shift expected between May and July 2026.
Forecasters estimate a 61 percent chance that the climate pattern will emerge during that period and continue through the end of the year.
Some forecast models also suggest the event could become exceptionally strong. According to the outlook, there is a one-in-four chance that sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the Pacific could rise to at least 2 degrees Celsius above average, a threshold often associated with what experts informally call a “Super El Niño.”
While the term is not an official scientific classification, it is commonly used to describe rare and powerful El Niño episodes such as those recorded in 1997-98 and 2015-16. These intense events can significantly disrupt weather patterns across the globe.
If a strong El Niño develops, it could contribute to warmer global temperatures and bring drought relief to parts of the southern United States.
It may also suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. However, experts warn that it could increase the risk of wildfires in some regions and trigger flooding in others.
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