Pakistan’s nominal per capita income is expected to cross the US$2,000 mark in FY27 for the first time, provided geopolitical tensions ease and global oil prices stabilize, according to Topline Securities.
In a note accompanying new estimates, Topline Securities Chief Executive Officer Mohammad Sohail said Pakistan’s per capita GDP is projected to rise to approximately US$2,022 in FY27, compared with an estimated US$1,901 in FY26.
The projection assumes an improvement in external conditions, particularly a reduction in tensions related to the Iran conflict and a moderation in energy prices.
According to Topline’s data, Pakistan’s per capita income has recovered significantly in recent years after falling to US$1,551 in FY23. It subsequently increased to US$1,680 in FY24, US$1,812 in FY25 and is estimated to reach US$1,901 in FY26.
Sohail noted that economic and political instability, combined with rapid population growth, have constrained Pakistan’s income growth over the past several decades. As a result, neighboring India and Bangladesh crossed the US$2,000 per capita income threshold around six to seven years ago, leaving Pakistan behind its regional peers.
Despite relatively modest economic growth under stabilization policies in recent years, Pakistan has managed to improve per capita income from around US$1,500 just three years ago to nearly US$1,900 currently, reflecting a gradual recovery in economic activity and macroeconomic stability.
