The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most parts of the country during the June-August 2026 season, raising concerns about agriculture, water demand, and heatwave conditions.
In its latest seasonal outlook, the PMD said the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in a neutral phase but is expected to shift to a positive phase by July, while the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has entered an El Niño phase and is likely to strengthen further during the season.
Based on these climate patterns, the Met Office expects normal to below-normal rainfall across much of Pakistan during June, July, and August. The largest rainfall deficits are likely to occur in the northeastern parts of Punjab.
The department’s probability outlook indicates a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across most regions, particularly Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and large parts of Balochistan.
However, near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall is expected in northern areas, including Gilgit-Baltistan, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir.
The PMD also forecasts above-normal temperatures nationwide, with the highest temperature departures expected in eastern Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and adjoining areas of northern Punjab.
Sindh, southeastern Balochistan, and central to northeastern Punjab are likely to experience the most intense heat.
The weather agency warned that reduced rainfall could create moisture stress during Kharif crop sowing and early crop development, lower agricultural productivity in rain-fed areas, and increase irrigation requirements.
At the same time, higher rainfall in northern catchment areas may improve reservoir levels and support water availability for agriculture and power generation.
The PMD also cautioned about the risk of flash floods and landslides in mountainous regions, particularly in northern Pakistan, while low-lying urban areas could face flooding during intense rainfall events.
Health concerns may also increase, with hot and humid conditions raising the risk of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, especially in southern regions.
The department further warned of possible heatwaves across the plains of southern Punjab and Sindh. Sharp temperature contrasts could trigger strong winds, dust storms, and hailstorms, potentially damaging crops, infrastructure, and transport networks.
In Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir, rising temperatures are expected to accelerate snowmelt, increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and higher river flows.
The PMD advised authorities and stakeholders to closely monitor weather developments and take timely measures to reduce the impact of extreme weather, agricultural stress, and climate-related hazards.