The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country during the June-August 2026 monsoon season, while temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide from July to September.
According to the PMD, northern regions including Gilgit-Baltistan, parts of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir are likely to receive near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal in northern Punjab and western parts of Gilgit-Baltistan.
The department warned that the Indus River system could experience dangerous water levels as it carries meltwater from northern glaciers combined with monsoon rainfall. Mountainous regions also face the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and landslides.
Director General PMD Dr. Muhammad Afzal said below-normal rainfall could lead to moisture stress for Kharif crops, reduce productivity in rain-fed agricultural areas and increase irrigation demand.
He added that high temperatures, particularly in southern regions, combined with humid conditions during intermittent rainfall episodes, may increase the risk of vector-borne diseases such as dengue.
The PMD also warned that enhanced rainfall in northern areas could increase the likelihood of flash floods and landslides, while heavy rainfall events may trigger urban flooding in low-lying areas of major cities in Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
