The State Bank of Pakistan is scheduled to hold its fourth Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2026 on June 15, 2026, Monday.
In the previous MPC held on April 27, 2026, the central bank raised the policy rate by 100 basis points, broadly in line with market expectations. At that time, a Topline Securities poll showed 53% of participants expected a rate hike, largely driven by heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
For the upcoming meeting, market expectations are evenly split between a status quo and another rate hike. With Middle East tensions relatively stable compared to the last policy cycle, sentiment remains uncertain.
A Topline Securities survey said 49 percent of respondents expect the policy rate to remain unchanged on June 15, while the remaining 49 percent anticipate a hike. Within the hike expectations, 34 percent foresee a 50bps increase, and 15 percent expect a 100bps increase.
Only 2 percent expect a rate cut of up to 50bps.
Topline itself expects the policy rate to remain unchanged in the upcoming MPC.
The uncertainty in expectations is largely driven by volatility in global oil prices. The research note highlights that ongoing diplomatic efforts and mediation attempts have helped stabilize markets.
Repeated assurances regarding a potential early resolution of geopolitical tensions have also kept Brent crude below $100 per barrel over the past two weeks.
Brent previously touched a high of $118 on April 29, 2026, while currently trading around $93 per barrel.
Secondary market indicators suggest a modest tightening bias. Yields on 6-month T-bills and 6-month KIBOR are currently around 12.42 percent and 12.50 percent, respectively, up 92 and 106 basis points since the last MPC. This reflects expectations of a possible 50–75bps adjustment, according to analysts.
Topline Research also surveyed market participants on broader macroeconomic expectations:
Policy Rate Outlook (December 2026)
- 53% expect rates above 11.5%
- 31% expect rates at 11.5%
- 16% expect rates below 11.5%
Inflation Expectations (FY27)
- 20% expect above 10%
- 30% expect 9–10%
- 26% expect 8–9%
- 20% expect 7–8%
5% expect below 7%
Despite the mixed survey results, Topline projects an average inflation of 8–8.5% in FY27.
Exchange Rate Outlook (FY27)
- 39% expect Rs. 285–290 per USD
- 36% expect Rs. 280–285
- 15% expect Rs. 275–280
- 7% expect above Rs. 290
Overall, the survey indicates expectations of relative stability in the rupee.
Topline projects the PKR/USD exchange rate to remain in the range of Rs283–286 by December 2026.
