Pakistan’s GDP Estimated to Grow by 3.94% in FY2021

The 103rd meeting of the National Accounts Committee to review the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was held under the Chairmanship of the Secretary Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives.

The provisional estimates of the GDP and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) for the year 2020-21 were presented on the basis of the latest data of six to nine months which were annualized.

The provisional growth of the GDP for the year 2020-21 has been estimated at 3.94 percent, based on the growth estimates of the agricultural, industrial, and services sectors at 2.77 percent, 3.57 percent, and 4.43 percent, respectively.


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The growth for 2019-20 was revised downward from -0.38 percent to -0.47 percent. The sector-wise brief is given below.

Agricultural Sector

The agriculture sector grew by 2.77 percent in 2020-21 as against 3.31 percent in 2019-20. The growth of important crops during this year is 4.65 percent on the back of the historic highest ever production of wheat, rice, and maize, while sugarcane registered the second-highest ever production.

This growth in the production of wheat, rice, sugarcane, and maize is at 8.1 percent, 13.6 percent, 22.0 percent, and 7.38 percent, respectively. However, cotton had negative growth of 22.8 percent that also resulted in a decline of 15.6 percent in cotton ginning.

Other crops (vegetables, fruits, and green fodder, etc.) showed positive growth of 1.41 percent mainly because of an increase in the production of oilseeds and vegetables. The livestock sector registered a growth of 3.1 percent. Forestry has grown at 1.4 percent.

Industrial Sector

The overall industrial sector has had a positive growth of 3.57 percent. The value-added in the mining and quarrying sector has declined by 6.5 percent. The large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector, which is driven primarily by QIM data (from July 2020 to March 2021) showed an unprecedented healthy growth of 9.29 percent.

The major contributors to this growth are Textile (5.9 percent), Food Beverage & Tobacco (11.73 percent), Petroleum products (12.71 percent), Pharmaceuticals (12.57 percent), Chemicals (11.65 percent), Non-Metallic Mineral Products (24.31 percent), Automobiles (23.38 percent), and Fertilizer (5.69 percent).

The electricity and gas sub-sector has declined by 22.96 percent mainly due to lower allocation of subsidies by the government to DISCOs, low increase in output, and a higher proportional increase in intermediate consumption.

The construction activity has increased by 8.34 percent mainly due to an increase in general government expenditure and private sector construction-related expenditures.

Services Sector

The services sector remained a major growth driver for many years and this year it witnessed a growth of 4.43 percent in the provisional estimates. While the wholesale and retail trade sector grew by 8.37 percent primarily because of an increase in the marketable surplus, the transport, storage, and communication sector has declined by 0.61 percent.


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The finance and insurance sector showed an increase of 7.84 percent. The remaining components of services, including housing, general government, and other private services, had a positive growth of 4.01 percent, 2.20 percent, and 4.64 percent, respectively.

GDP at Current Market Prices

The GDP at the current market prices has also been computed and stands at Rs. 47,709 billion for 2020-21. This shows a growth of 14.8 percent over Rs. 41,556 billion for 2019-20. The per capita income for 2020-21 has been calculated as Rs. 246,414 as well, showing a growth of 14.6 percent over Rs. 215,060 during 2019-20.

The per capita income in dollars increased by 13.4 percent from $1,361 in 2019-20 to $1,543 in 2020-21.