Power generation in the country went down by 22 percent on a month-on-month (MoM) basis to 8,367 gigawatts per hour (GWh) in November 2022, while solar generation is up 56 percent YoY. Meanwhile, during November 2022, fuel costs for power generation decreased by 5 percent YoY or 34 percent MoM to an average of Rs. 6/KWh, compared to an average cost of Rs. 9.02/KWh in October.
According to data by Arif Habib Limited (AHL), power generation was down 8 percent year-on-year (YoY) to 60,153 GWh during the first five months of the financial year 2022-23, compared to 65,568 GWh in the same period last year.
Major contributors during November 2022 were Hydel (share: 30 percent), Nuclear (share: 28 percent), Gas (share: 14 percent), RLNG (share: 12 percent), Coal (share: 12 percent), Wind (share: 2 percent), Solar (share: 0.9 percent), Bagasse (share: 0.8 percent), and furnace oil (share: 0.1 percent).
Hydel power generation accounted for 29.7 percent of electricity output in November 2022, indicating an 11.8 percent drop from 2,816 GWh in November 2021 to 2,484 GWh in November 2022. On an MoM basis, hydel generation is down 21.8 percent. For the period 5MFY23, it is down 2.2 percent YoY.
The decline in Hydel-based generation was due to a 9 percent YoY decline from WAPDA and a 35 percent YoY decline from Tarbela’s 4th extension. This decline was despite the addition of Karot Hydro Power to the system as drag came from the unavailability of Neelam Jhelum during the period due to a technical fault, nullifying Karot Hydro Power’s contribution to the overall generation.
RLNG-based power generation decreased by 16.3 percent YoY to 1,012 GWh in November 2022 from 1,209 GWh last year. A month-wise breakdown of the data reveals that RLNG-based power output plunged by 45.1 percent in November (1,012 GWh) from 1,844 GWh in October.
Coal-based power generation decreased by 29.3 percent YoY to 975 GWh in November 2022 from 1,379 GWh last year. On an MoM basis, coal-based power output plummeted by 41.1 percent in November from 1,657 GWh in October.
Conversely, nuclear power generation increased by 57.4 percent YoY to 2,338 GWh in November, up from 1,485 GWh last year, while monthly nuclear power generation shows an increase of 6 percent from 2,206 GWh observed last month.
As of November, solar-based generation is up 56 percent YoY from 52 GWh last year to 79 GWh today. During 5MFY23, it surged by 26.6 percent YoY to 384 GWh from 303 GWh in 5MFY22.
During November 2022, fuel costs for power generation decreased by 5 percent YoY or 34 percent MoM to an average of Rs. 6/KWh, compared to an average cost of Rs. 9.02/KWh in October. For 5MFY23, fuel costs are up 35 percent YoY with an average cost of Rs. 9.42/KWh, compared to Rs. 6.99/KWh in 5MFY22.
In an interesting highlight, the cost of furnace oil (FO) based power fell 28.2 percent, MoM, to Rs. 24.18 per unit, it was the priciest fuel among all metrics. The fuel’s inefficacy for power generation is reflected in the fact that local refineries don’t like using it. Storage tanks are full of FO as many power plants remain closed indefinitely.