Urea Sales Likely to Rise by 43% in December

Pakistan urea sales in December 2022 are expected to clock in at 835,000 tons, up 39 percent year-on-year (YoY) compared to 599,000 tons in December 2021.

According to a report by Topline Securities, urea sales are expected to be up 43 percent Month-on-Month (MoM) due to seasonal factors. This will take the full year 2022 urea sales to 6,000,000 tons, up 4 percent YoY.

Closing inventory of urea is now expected at around 70,000 tons in December 2022 versus 313,000 tons in November 2022.

Amongst the companies, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to record an offtake of 221,000 tons, up 17 percent YoY and 131 percent MoM. The significant jump in EFERT’s offtake is due to the resumption of the base plant which was shut down for scheduled maintenance in October-November 2022.

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to record sales of 222,000 tons, followed by 157,000 tons of Fatima Group and  57,000 tons of Fauji Fertilizers Bin Qasim (FFBL), the report added.

Total DAP sales during December 2022 are anticipated to clock in at around 160,000 tons, up 37 percent YoY while on an MoM basis, sales are down 32 percent due to seasonal factors. This takes the full year 2022 DAP sales to 1,207,000 tons, down 36 percent YoY.

Company-wise data suggests FFBL and EFERT are likely to record sales of 102,000 tons and 32,000 tons respectively, followed by FFC’s sales of 12,000 tons. FFBL’s DAP production is expected at around 45,000 tons, taking the closing inventory of DAP to around 432,000 tons.

The report has an overweight stance on fertilizer stocks with EFERT and FFC as preferred picks due to high dividend yield and ability to pass any cost pressures.