Pakistan is expected to post its largest primary surplus in the current fiscal year.
According to Topline Securities, Pakistan is expected to post its largest Primary Surplus of 2 percent of GDP in FY25 in the last 25 years under the new bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF wants the federal government to achieve a primary surplus, which implies that the country’s expenditures should be lower than its revenues before accounting for interest payments. Expenditures include both current (non-development) and development spending.
The federal government has a primary surplus target of Rs. 2.5 trillion (2.0 percent of GDP) for FY25. IMF estimates a primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP for FY25 in its May 2024 report. Excluding provincial surplus, the primary surplus would be 1 percent of GDP for FY25 and a deficit of 0.13 percent for FY24E.