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World Test Championship: Who is Making the Final?

The World Test Championship (WTC) is finally entering the business end with several teams still in contention for the two spots on offer.

With 15 Tests left in the current WTC cycle, no team is guaranteed a spot in the final yet. Here’s how the top contenders stack up:

Current World Test Championship Standings:

Position	Team	Matches	Wins	Losses	Draws	Penalty Points	Points	Percentage (%)
1	India	15	9	5	1	2	110	61.11
2	South Africa	9	5	3	1	0	64	59.26
3	Australia	13	8	4	1	10	90	57.69
4	New Zealand	12	6	6	0	0	72	50.00
4	Sri Lanka	10	5	5	0	0	60	50.00
6	England	20	10	9	1	19	105	43.75
7	Pakistan	10	4	6	0	8	40	33.33
8	West Indies	10	2	6	2	0	32	26.67
9	Bangladesh	11	3	8	0	3	33	25.00

South Africa (59.26%)

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Matches left: 1 vs. Sri Lanka (home), 2 vs. Pakistan (home).
South Africa needs to win 3 of their 4 remaining games to ensure qualification. Losing to Sri Lanka and winning 2-0 vs. Pakistan gives them a solid chance (61.11%), but Sri Lanka and India could still overtake them with exceptional performances. A win against Sri Lanka combined with a draw vs. Pakistan guarantees their place.

Sri Lanka (50.00%)

Matches left: 1 vs. South Africa (away), 2 vs. Australia (home).
A clean sweep in their remaining games (3-0) would propel Sri Lanka to 61.54%, securing a spot. A single loss reduces their chances drastically (53.85%), making them reliant on other results, with South Africa, India, Australia, and New Zealand potentially overtaking them.

New Zealand (50.00%)

Matches left: 2 vs. England (home).
New Zealand’s loss in Christchurch limits their maximum percentage to 57.14. To qualify, they need favorable outcomes from India, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Australia. A 1-1 draw in the India-Australia series and ties in South Africa’s and Sri Lanka’s series could open the door for them.

India (61.11%)

Matches left: 4 vs. Australia (away).
India leads the table but needs at least 4 wins (64.04%) to secure a spot. If other teams falter, fewer wins could suffice. For instance, losing 2-3 to Australia and drawing other key matches could still place them in second at 53.51%.

Australia (57.69%)

Matches left: 4 vs. India (home), 2 vs. Sri Lanka (away).
Australia requires at least 4 wins and 1 draw to surpass Sri Lanka’s potential 61.54%. A 3-2 win against India followed by a 2-0 sweep in Sri Lanka would assure their place in the final (60.53%).

Pakistan (33.33%)

Matches left: 2 vs. South Africa (away), 2 vs. West Indies (home).
Even with a perfect record in their remaining games (52.38%), Pakistan relies heavily on other teams losing key matches to stay in contention.

England (43.75%)

Matches left: 2 vs. New Zealand (away).
England’s chances are slim. Even with a maximum of 48.86%, they need a cascade of unlikely outcomes, including defeats for India, South Africa, and Sri Lanka.

Out of Contention

Bangladesh and West Indies are mathematically eliminated from the race to the top two.

The race for the spot in the WTC Final remains highly competitive, with teams’ fortunes hinging on a mix of performance and favorable results from other matches.