World Test Championship: Who Will Face South Africa in the Final?

Australia’s recent victory at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) against India, and South Africa’s thrilling two-wicket victory over Pakistan, have all but confirmed the finalists for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final, scheduled for June 2025.

However, India and Sri Lanka still have mathematical chances to qualify, depending on the results of the remaining matches. Here’s a detailed breakdown of what each team needs to do to secure their place in the WTC final.

Australia

• Current PCT (Percentage Points): 61.46
• Matches Remaining: 1 home Test vs India, 2 away Tests vs Sri Lanka

Australia is in the driver’s seat to claim the second spot in the WTC final. Here are the scenarios for their qualification:

1. Win in Sydney (vs India):
   • If Australia win the Sydney Test, they will qualify for the WTC final regardless of the results in their two-Test series in Sri Lanka.
   • Even if they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka after winning in Sydney, they would finish with 57.02 percentage points, which would still be higher than India’s maximum possible PCT of 55.26 and Sri Lanka’s 53.85.
2. Draw in Sydney:
   • A draw in Sydney would keep Australia ahead of India, but it would leave the door open for Sri Lanka.
   • If Australia were to draw in Sydney and lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, they would finish with 53.51 percentage points, narrowly behind Sri Lanka’s potential 53.85 (if Sri Lanka win 2-0 against Australia).
3. Lose in Sydney:
   • If Australia lose the Sydney Test, they would need at least one win in Sri Lanka to qualify.
   • A 1-1 series result in Sri Lanka after losing in Sydney would leave Australia with 57.02 percentage points, which would still be enough to finish ahead of India (55.26).

India

• Current PCT: 52.78
• Matches Remaining: 1 away Test vs Australia

India’s path to the WTC final is straightforward but challenging. They must win their final Test against Australia in Sydney to stay in contention.

1. Win in Sydney:
   • A win in Sydney would take India to 55.26 percentage points.
   • India would qualify if Australia achieve no more than one draw in their two-Test series in Sri Lanka. In this scenario, Australia would drop to 53.51, and Sri Lanka would finish with a maximum of 48.72 (if they win 1-0 against Australia).
2. Draw or Lose in Sydney:
   • If India only manage a draw in Sydney, their PCT would drop to 51.75, effectively eliminating them from the WTC final race.
   • Even if Australia lose both Tests in Sri Lanka after drawing in Sydney, they would still finish with 53.51 percentage points, ahead of India.

Sri Lanka

• Current PCT: 45.45
• Matches Remaining: 2 home Tests vs Australia

Sri Lanka’s chances of qualifying for the WTC final are slim but not impossible. They need a perfect set of results to make it to the final.

1. Sydney Test Ends in a Draw:
   • If the Sydney Test between Australia and India ends in a draw, Sri Lanka must beat Australia 2-0 in their home series.
   • In this scenario, Sri Lanka would finish with 53.85 percentage points, narrowly edging out Australia (53.51) and India (51.75).
2. India Win in Sydney:
   • If India win the Sydney Test, Sri Lanka will be eliminated from contention, as India’s PCT of 55.26 would be unassailable for Sri Lanka.
3. Australia Win in Sydney:
   • If Australia win the Sydney Test, they will qualify for the WTC final, regardless of the results in Sri Lanka. This would also eliminate Sri Lanka from contention.