The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy on July 30, 2025, with brokerage house Topline Securities expecting a slight cut.
In a poll conducted by the brokerage house, 56 percent of the market participants expect a 50-100bps cut in upcoming monetary policy meeting compared to 44 percent in last poll. While 37 percent are expecting no change compared to 56 percent in last MPS.
In last MPC meeting, majority was unsure of the rate cut as federal budget announcement was ahead and Iran Israel conflict was leading the surge in oil prices. In line with these concerns, the central bank also maintained status quo and kept the rate unchanged at 11 percent.
Topline said that in its view, the central bank has further room of around 100bps cut as it expects FY26 inflation to average between 5-7 percent, translating into real rate of 400-600bps (Policy Rate: 11 percent), higher than historical real rate of 200-300bps.
Topline said that the left-over room is quite small and will be gradual. It expects the central bank to announce cut of 50bps in upcoming MPC meeting.
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