The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has forecast near-normal rainfall and colder nights across Pakistan over the next three to four months. Senior Disaster Risk Assessment official Dr. Tayyeb Shah shared the outlook during a media briefing in Islamabad.
By late November, cold winds from Siberia are expected to intensify winter in northern and central Pakistan. Temperatures in the plains and southern regions will likely remain near normal, while the north will experience severe cold in December. Dr. Shah said the Siberian High will strengthen, gradually cooling the country from late November onward.
Snowfall is projected to be slightly below normal, especially in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Early light snow may fall in October, with more consistent accumulation from mid-November through December. Reduced snow cover could affect glacier health and summer water availability in 2026, but no major water shortages are expected due to adequate monsoon reservoir storage.
The mountainous north—including Kohistan, Mansehra, Swat, Diamir, Astore, Nagar, and Neelum—remains moderately vulnerable to landslides. Residual monsoon moisture and freeze-thaw cycles could trigger localized slope failures. Key roads like the Karakoram Highway and Neelum Valley Road may face occasional disruptions. The NDMA stressed the need for sustained monitoring and early warnings to protect communities and transport routes.
Southern Pakistan, especially southwestern Balochistan and parts of Sindh, may see mild to moderate drought conditions due to ongoing dryness and reliance on groundwater. Districts such as Chagai, Nushki, Panjgur, and Gwadar are identified as drought hotspots. The NDMA recommends proactive drought resilience planning, including groundwater management and climate-smart agriculture, to protect rural livelihoods.
Smog is expected to be the most critical seasonal hazard for late 2025. From October through December, Punjab’s industrial and agricultural belt—including Lahore, Faisalabad, Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, and Multan—will likely face moderate to dense smog episodes, with Air Quality Index (AQI) levels exceeding 400 (hazardous). Smog formation will intensify in November and December due to temperature inversion, calm winds, high humidity, and pollutant buildup. Urban centers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, such as Peshawar, may also see low to moderate smog events.
Authorities urge strict enforcement of emission controls, regulation of crop residue burning, and public awareness campaigns to reduce health and transport disruptions.