A senior official from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has announced that Pakistan will experience a weak La Nina phase starting in November and lasting through December. The climate event is expected to continue for three to four months, bringing less rainfall and warmer temperatures across much of the country.
Tayyab Shah, NDMA’s Director of Risk Management, briefed the media in Islamabad on Thursday. He warned that the upcoming winter will see below-normal rainfall, especially from November to January. Central regions—including Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir—will receive less rain than usual, while most winter precipitation will be limited to the northern areas.
Punjab is likely to see normal temperatures, but the northern, southern, and western regions are expected to record higher-than-average temperatures. Cold winds will enter Pakistan between December and April, with lower humidity levels. As a result, winter is now expected to peak in late January instead of December.
Shah added that snowfall in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will be 5–7% lower than average. This could impact glacier health and reduce water availability during the summer of 2026.
NDMA officials also warned that reduced snowfall and limited rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan could lead to drought-like conditions. However, they noted that monsoon rains in 2025 and adequate dam storage should help prevent a major water crisis.
By late November, Siberian winds will bring a drop in temperatures across northern and central Pakistan, with severe cold expected in the north during December.
The NDMA’s forecast comes just days after the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) dismissed rumors of an unusually cold winter. The PMD said only minor winter waves are expected due to western winds in the coming months.
Experts explain that La Nina is triggered by an abnormal drop in Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, disrupting global weather and often causing extreme temperature shifts.
