Erratic heat and rainfall patterns driven by climate change are triggering an alarming rise in landslides along Pakistan’s N-15 highway, a popular “tourism corridor” connecting Balakot, Naran, Babusar Top, and Chilas.
A joint team of Pakistani and Chinese scientists analysed 455 satellite images, climate records, and field surveys from 1990 to 2023. Their study identified 335 non-seismic landslide events not linked to earthquakes that repeatedly sent rocks, mud, and ice crashing onto the highway, disrupting travel and threatening communities.
Researchers used a three-step method involving Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite data, Google Earth verification, and detailed field inspections.
The findings show a clear link between rising temperatures, increased precipitation, and the surge in landslides, particularly after 2005.
According to the study, 84% of landslides occurred between April and October, the warm season when snowmelt, soil moisture, and heavy rains destabilise slopes.
Terrain-based risks vary across the region:
- Balakot, a subtropical zone, faces landslides mainly due to heavy rain.
- Naran to Babusar Top, an alpine region, sees slides triggered by moisture and precipitation.
- Chilas, a semi-arid area, is affected largely by heat and geological conditions.
Researchers found that 86% of landslides hit slopes steeper than 40°, and most occurred at elevations between 1,000 and 2,500 metres, key indicators for early warning systems.
Field visits in 2022 and 2023 confirmed satellite findings and revealed how local communities cope.
According to Nazir Ahmed Bazai of the China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, many residents now avoid high-risk zones during monsoon months or temporarily relocate.
However, limited infrastructure means their responses remain “reactive, not proactive”.
Bazai recommends low-cost bioengineering measures such as planting deep-rooted vegetation in Balakot and Naran, installing protective barriers, improving drainage, and deploying real-time sensors to monitor rainfall, snowmelt, and soil moisture.
He also stresses the need for community awareness programmes and evacuation training.
Global data reflects the severity of the issue. A study by Dr. Melanie Froude and Dave Petley documented 1,583 deaths from non-earthquake-triggered landslides in Pakistan between 2004 and 2016.
Froude stresses the need to “research, regulate and educate”, urging enforcement of safe construction rules in mountain regions and low-cost methods like maintaining vegetation and proper drainage.
The study provides a comprehensive roadmap for risk assessment, early warning systems, and resilient infrastructure planning in Pakistan’s vulnerable mountain corridors.
