S&P Global Market Intelligence has projected easing inflation, gradual improvement in economic growth, and a manageable current account position for Pakistan, aligning with the State Bank of Pakistan’s latest outlook, according to a statement issued by Adviser to the Finance Minister Khurram Schehzad.
The adviser said S&P’s latest macroeconomic forecast places inflation at 5.1 percent in 2026, rising slightly to 5.6 percent in 2027. These projections fall within the SBP’s expected inflation range of 5 to 7 percent for the next two years, indicating a stable to mildly higher inflation trajectory.
On the external front, S&P has projected Pakistan’s current account deficit at 0.5 percent of GDP in 2026 and 1.3 percent in 2027. The 2026 estimate aligns with the SBP’s guidance that the current account deficit in FY26 will remain within 0 to 1 percent of GDP.
The adviser noted that while S&P’s projection for 2027 is marginally higher than the SBP’s stated range, the central bank’s guidance was specifically provided for FY26, making the comparison limited across different years.
In terms of economic growth, S&P expects real GDP growth of 3.5 percent in FY26, increasing to 4.4 percent in FY27 as economic activity strengthens. The SBP, meanwhile, has projected growth in the range of 3.75 to 4.75 percent for FY26.
While S&P’s FY26 growth forecast is slightly below the lower bound of the SBP’s range, its FY27 projection falls within the SBP’s FY26 growth band, suggesting convergence on the medium term growth trajectory.
Khurram Schehzad said the forecasts reflect a shared assessment by both institutions of easing inflationary pressures, gradual improvement in economic fundamentals, and a stabilising external account.
The comparison comes at a time when Pakistan is navigating a fragile recovery following a period of high inflation, external financing pressures, and fiscal consolidation under an IMF-supported programme. Policymakers have repeatedly stressed the need to anchor inflation expectations, maintain external stability, and gradually lift growth through structural reforms and improved macroeconomic management.
The adviser said the broad alignment between S&P and the central bank’s projections supports the government’s view that macroeconomic stabilisation measures are beginning to yield results, although risks remain and sustained policy discipline will be required to maintain the recovery.
