Pakistan’s inflation is expected to rise again from April as higher global oil prices begin to push up domestic fuel, transport, and electricity costs.
According to a report by The Express Tribune, market analysts and brokerage houses, including JS Global Capital Limited, believe the recent energy shock is likely to reverse Pakistan’s disinflation trend.
It cited estimates from various research houses, including Arif Habib Limited, with projections placing April inflation close to 10 percent, while March inflation is expected to remain in the high 7 percent range.
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Main trigger, as per the report, is the sharp rise in international oil prices, which has already translated into domestic fuel price adjustments despite partial government subsidies. Fuel prices reportedly climbed by around 25 percent on average in March, driving a steep increase in transport costs, with analysts estimating that fuel and transport together contributed nearly two-thirds of the monthly rise in inflation.
According to the report, electricity prices have further intensified household and business cost pressures. A fuel cost adjustment of Rs. 1.63 per unit, now extended to previously protected consumers, pushed the electricity index higher, while rising logistics and industrial input costs have broadened inflationary pressures beyond food into wider cost-push factors.
The State Bank of Pakistan’s next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on April 27 is now being closely watched by investors and businesses. While the policy rate was last kept unchanged at 10.5 percent, rising oil prices and the risk of prolonged geopolitical disruption may force the central bank to reconsider its stance.
According to the report, JS Global Capital Limited’s research team has also flagged broader macroeconomic risks, warning that sustained high oil prices could raise Pakistan’s import bill, strain the current account, and put renewed pressure on foreign exchange reserves.