El Nino Likely to Push Temperatures Higher This Year

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said the El Niño climate pattern is likely to return by mid-year, with conditions expected to develop during the May to July period.

The UN weather agency said there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño following neutral conditions earlier this year, with early signs indicating the event could be strong.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that warms sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, causing shifts in global weather patterns, including changes in rainfall, winds, and atmospheric pressure.

The cycle alternates with La Niña, with neutral conditions occurring in between. The last El Niño contributed to record global temperatures, with 2023 ranking among the hottest years and 2024 setting a new record.

WMO climate prediction chief Wilfran Moufouma Okia said forecast confidence is expected to improve after April. The agency said sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Niño conditions in the coming months.

Forecasts also indicate above-normal land temperatures across much of the world during the next three months. The WMO said there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, but it can amplify their impacts by increasing the likelihood of extreme weather such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.