Oil prices could either surge to dangerous levels or crash sharply in the coming months, but the most extreme impact will be felt in fragile economies.
In Pakistan, petrol prices could get cheaper by Rs. 150 per litre in a best-case scenario or rise towards Rs. 1,000 per litre in the worst-case.
Continued disruptions in the Persian Gulf could push international crude prices as high as $150–200 per barrel.
In such a scenario, Pakistan’s budget deficit would widen sharply as expensive oil imports strain already weak fiscal buffers, potentially driving domestic fuel prices toward the Rs. 1,000 per litre range if the crisis intensifies further.
Traders may be underestimating the risk of prolonged oil supply disruptions linked to ongoing tensions in the US-Iran-Israel triangle. Iran also retains the ability to disrupt shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil artery.
Both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup expect Brent crude to first climb toward $120 per barrel if tanker traffic faces sustained pressure in the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the outlook could shift sharply if diplomatic progress is achieved.
In this analyst’s eyes, Brent crude could retreat toward $80 per barrel by late August if Iran and the United States reach a breakthrough agreement. In that case, Pakistan could see relief at the pump, with petrol and diesel prices potentially falling closer to the Rs. 150–300 per litre range, depending on subsidy and tax adjustments.
Goldman Sachs also warns that global oil inventories are falling at a rapid pace, leaving markets increasingly vulnerable to shocks. Stockpiles have dropped to roughly 101 days of projected demand, the lowest level in nearly eight years.
Iran is currently reviewing Washington’s latest proposal for a possible agreement, while US President Donald Trump has expressed cautious optimism about a deal, alongside warnings to Tehran over rejecting proposed conditions.
In a best-case scenario, a peace deal could push crude below $90 per barrel, easing inflationary pressure and bringing fuel prices in Pakistan closer to the lower end of the Rs. 150–300 per litre range.
In a worst-case scenario, oil could surge beyond $150 per barrel, triggering a severe fuel crisis across the region, with Pakistan forced to absorb the full shock of global volatility.
Views expressed here do not reflect ProPakistani or its owners.
It is just an eyewash, the govt now knows that the only solution to keep.incompetent, corrupt and incapable Cabinet, MNAs, MPAs and Bureaucracy alive they finance can only be taken from poor people of Pakistan….so the Petrol and Electricity.