A new open-access study based on 12,000 years of global population data suggests that the world’s population could halve by 2064 (~4 decades).
The study, published in the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, introduces a unified equation that can predict multiple population growth including slow early expansion and more recent decelerating trends.
The model differs from traditional methods by allowing population growth to shift between different regimes through a single controlling parameter. It draws mathematical parallels with physics.
The model closely fits major phases of human population evolution over the past 12,000 years. It also revisits earlier “doomsday” projections, including the 1960 hypothesis by Heinz von Foerster that population growth could diverge toward infinity around 2026.
For future scenarios, the baseline projection indicates no imminent global collapse; however, the study explores extreme hypothetical cases in which Earth’s carrying capacity is sharply reduced due to climate change, pandemics, or resource constraints.
In a worst-case scenario, the model produces a rapid contraction pathway in which global population could roughly halve by around 2064. This is not a forecast but a sensitivity experiment showing how abrupt systemic stress could reshape world population.
The framework suggests that population dynamics may behave like complex nonlinear systems capable of switching between stable growth, saturation, and collapse.
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